Pre-Rehearsal Semi Final Two Preview

I kind of gave a false intro to semi one’s preview where I said that was the easier semi to call, and whilst I think that’s correct maybe for the order of the qualifiers, I’m actually more happy with the 10 I have to qualify here for now. Going through and doing some maths has more backed up my expected 10 and overall I have a quite large gap between those out and those in.

Let’s work our way up from the bottom of the scoreboard again…

16th Georgia

Faring better in some non fan metrics than expected (i.e. not dead last), Mariam is fine live and some staging potential. Georgia also hosting the junior event still suggests some level of commitment too. Still, drawn very badly and hard to see casuals voting.

15th Montenegro

I feel this was heading home early regardless but the draw is really bad for this one too. Not only are they dumped early but the Balkan ballad competition from Greece and Serbia are in good slots and more reliable on staging.

14th Armenia

I'm dissapointed this so quickly reached odds against to qualify as it would have been a very tempting lay. My math says it may actually still be and is further away than on first assumption. I do think Armenia's diaspora is a bit overestimated and only gets them to around half way in. Armenia are generally good at staging and Parg is solid but 'Survivor' just feels too weak as a song to get enough casual love.

13th Latvia

The Portugal of this semi for me with it jumping a few places in my predictions having really looked at everyone voting. I still don’t see this particularly close to qualifying but feels more 20+pts than a 0-10 I may have been tempted to say previously. Personally, I still remain unable to listen to this, but I like the idea of it and there’s a niche..

12th Denmark

A step up here into even more likely territory but this is lacking the call to vote. Sissal has been promising much improved staging from dmgp which is necessary to give this a chance. Not an amazing draw either and I am sceptical on the visuals still so this is yet another I provisionally have in the 20-30 pt range a bit further back from the borderline. Qualification more do-able than the others mentioned so far but needs slip ups.

11th Ireland

Ireland has potential but the concern I have is there have been few signs of any major staging upgrades. It's also doing worse than you'd want in many of the metrics and the draw isn't ideal. Positively, all the anglophone friends are here and maybe Emmy and this sound can get a foothold in Denmark and Finland so there's at least something to tap into maybe.

10th Luxembourg

Kind of a forgotten entry of the year unless you're into following all the pre parties and permanently online and overall this might be the entry I've seen talked about the least. No controversy or vocal cheerleaders, just a good song and overall package that should re-instate those credentials. Expecting consistent 3s-5s which quickly adds up to a good score and decent buffer vs those missing out.

9th Serbia

Much like fellow Balkan balladeer Klemen in semi 1, Princ hasn't been getting much love this year. Similarly, he is someone I and most other betting people are far more optimistic with. Good diaspora base and track record, decent niche, good draw, good live performer... Seems like a very likely qualifier unless the opposition really steps up. Solidly past the 40pt mark which should be enough and a mid 50s where I currently have him makes him pretty secure

8th Greece

There are the warning signs on this feeling flat live and the fate of Yianna Terzi’s 2018 song hangs over this too but ultimately this should be going through. Very strong draw and despite Cyprus missing it’s a genuinely good draw otherwise.

7th Czechia

I have more love for my Graham Norton meme which I've attached to poor Adonxs than anything to be honest but I think this is the one that the pre party bubble is over inflating. Good performer, good song on the whole, I just don't think it's a televote magnet. Pretty secure in qualifying vs the competition but I don’t see it doing anything noteworthy here.

6th Lithuania

Very consistent diaspora support is the basis for this to do well but there's also a very different vibe to the rest of the semi and I do like where it has been drawn. I think this is the first approaching certain qualifier we have.

5th Australia

Go-Jo has also been one of the more talked about acts from the pre parties and looks to be having a great time. There are also flashes of really strong casual appeal, although these are always hard to rely upon. I think this is a pretty volatile one where a top 10 in the final or bottom 5 would not surprise either way. In the semi final context I don't see Milkshake Man missing out and I'm putting him provisionally somewhere in the middle of the qualifiers. Going first may limit a top 3 push but he does remain the best song in the running order for a while in my view, which may encourage votes.

4th Malta

I've said before and maintain Malta is pretty close to the more fancied entries here but I do still have it in 4th for now although very close to that top 3. Almost guaranteed to qualify with Malta and Miriana putting in lots of effort this year.

3rd Austria

Very conflicted on this and it feels like if one of the big three misses the top 3 it will be JJ without Israel's assumed points boost or Finland's pimp slot. Has drifted during the pre parties with JJ having a hard time conveying purpose alone with nothing but a backdrop to rely on. That could change when it is fully formed with staging but this does still have the worst draw of the ‘big acts’ here as well. If there is a Nemo comparison to be made, it may be with the moderate semi final placing despite the hype.

2nd Finland

More fan leaning semis helps this a lot and there's also the pimp slot where Erika works very well as a show closer. We also know almost exactly what we are getting so there's no speculation on staging or political votes etc.

1st Israel

I subscribe to the view this is a worse song than last year and is less effective at getting the vote out. I've also seen very little evidence to suggest this is just going to stroll up and smash the televote. Priced based on fear rather than anything else. But... It is still probably the favourite here. Nice song, strong singer, a bit of a support boost and Israel are great at staging. I also think that 'fan vote' will be too narrowly spread between Malta, Austria and Finland giving this a bit of an advantage also. One of the cases where I guess this does win the semi - marginally - but the value is in opposing.

As you can see with the points above, I have nearly a 20pt gap from 10th-11th which is large at this stage and offers a margin of error. Maybe I’m oversimplifying but there does feel a sizeable quality gap. Further up it’s harder and where I’m less confident on things. Israel feels opposable for the win, as does Austria for the top 3, but both showing up with a great staging could kill those bets off immediately. I feel like it’s more a wait and see, or wait and still have to guess based upon this year’s rehearsal changes.