Eurovision 2023: Grand Final Preview
Well the day of the final is here and I'm not going to make a dramatic last minute u-turn. Sweden has been my winner since it showed up on the scene, apart from that which seems a very predictable outcome it's actually a very interesting year.
My prediction can be broken down into 3 main segments: A bottom 11 a relatively tight 9-15 bunch followed by 8 entries I'm happy will be in the top 10.
I'm sure the fandom collectively has about 20 entries in the top 10 as per usual and I've seen some truly silly points estimations: remember, there are fewer countries and points on offer this year than usual and not everything can do well.
With that mini disclaimer, I’ll start from last place and work upwards:
26. AUSTRALIA
Hmm, maybe I should have started at the top as this isn't going to be a popular suggestion and goes against many others. I'm not going to speculate too much on their semi final position but I also don't find it too relevant: going last masked a lot of the issues this has a package. There are just too many alternatives including the better drawn Germany and Slovenia whilst Australia's televote in the final is notoriously underwhelming. There'll be light jury support for a very professional package but I can't envisage this doing amazing on that side either. Last place could be any from perhaps 10 countries, but I'll go with Australia. I really think the televote ends up pretty poor here and this is the first of several where the bubble and UK-centric focus has exaggerated the ‘momentum’.
25. ALBANIA
Base diaspora and some very limited regional jury support puts Albania around the 50pt mark. Not much to say really, they have the lowest ceiling for my money and are perhaps bottom of the jury vote- the vocals are strong and it's a competent package but it’s severely lacking in allies who will go in for this.
24. THE UNITED KINGDOM
We've all highlighted throughout the year how the live performance could be the undoing here and those fears have been realised. That the same UK fans who were hopeful for a good result are now scared of a return to last place is telling. I'm often a UK sceptic but I don't yet have this falling all the way to the very bottom, performing in last. Ukraine are somewhat expected to be generous (all down hill after receiving the first jury 12?) and I picture this scraping up occasional 2s and 3s across western Europe. I see at least 50pts but this year that sort of tally does keep you in the running.
23. PORTUGAL
On paper, this should be last given the jury indicators, running order and voting strength compared to other 'weak' qualifiers. I do think this does OK within the Mediterranean countries however and Mimicat delivers a great, elevating performance.
22. SLOVENIA
I've had the same issue all year with Slovenia. It it the average song performed well that does better than expected or worse than it deserves? It looks more like the latter right now and I’d be more bullish against this if it was drawn in the first half. That said, between the massive finish of Israel and the Wtf? that Croatia brings this is memory holed. With Slovenia's track record and more limited reach don't be shocked if this was to find it's way to last.
21. GERMANY
As another of the big 5 Germany is hard to call and a score anywhere between 10-120 pts wouldn't surprise. Il go right in the middle of that range.
20. SERBIA
Top Balkan has jumped like a hot potato this year but it does look game over for Serbia in that race. Drawing 1st half and seeing the two main rivals go down much better and be placed in the final 3? Yeah it's looking difficult to say the least, I was fortunately able to back out of much of that position without much downside although I do still fancy them narrowly vs Slovenia. It's another base vote + a bit here and there scenario.
19. ESTONIA
I worry for the televote here coming between two very strong entries whilst jury signs have been underwhelming. It wouldn't shock if that changed and Estonia were able to find a good haul but I'm expecting something more 10-13th leaving them vulnerable to plenty of leapfroggers.
18. LITHUANIA
Monika delivers a stellar vocal but this is too weak of a song for any significant jury love. The late draw also won't help Lithuania get any more points than the usual haul either which puts them somewhere around here. Very little to say.
17. MOLDOVA
Juries (except Romania and perhaps Ukraine) are going to hate this but the televote should be quite good, especially if the Romanian diaspora chip in; there’s a good usp here. Not capturing the fun enough for a score that would push it into a combined top 10 and perhaps not even a televote top 10. Respectable for Pasha and all things considered another overacheivement and fine job done by Moldova.
16. CYPRUS
Believe me when I say this might end up with half of it's total points from just Greece and Australia. Not eye catching or attention grabbing enough in a 26 song final and jurors have more interesting songs and/or tighter vocals. Still a decent position for Cyprus.
15.CZECHIA
It's another bad draw in a final for Czechia being placed as early as possible and straight after Finland. It's fair to expect it didn't do anything of note in the semi. Bang in the middle of the draw, I see a lot of agreement between jurors and televotes for this and it produces a spectacularly average result overall. They might be a little disappointed perhaps but the broadcaster is doing a very good job overall and are turning into one of the more reliable countries.
14. ARMENIA
Separating my heart from my head I probably have Armenia on the lower end of any preview. I don't believe this works or connects on a first viewing and am reminded more of Artsvik than Ivetta Mukuchyan in terms of the feel and impact this brings, although Brunette delivers a very convincing live performance. The Semi final indicators are pretty average and once again this isn't a good draw for this type of entry. Also notable has been the extreme drift on first release and some pretty bad polling (this is not for the UK arena audience granted) with an underwhelming base Eurojury score (17th) Juries should have this in their top 10 but I actually don't trust them to. If I have to lose money opposing something I hope it is this however.
13. POLAND
Usually most eyebrows are raised for having something too low but that will be the opposite here and having this higher than Armenia just feels dirty. Eurovision can be very unjust. However look into the maths and you then see what a c. 90 televote score can do. Poland is capable of that considering the diaspora and numbers this is pulling coupled with it being a regional proven hit. A potential last place in the jury will prevent anything higher.
12. BELGIUM
I know it’s in vogue to say this has come on leaps and bounds since it was first selected but it's still a low point in terms of quality in the final. I'm not blind to the fact audiences and jurors quite like this however and Gustaph does have a recent history of overachieving. It’s also an entry which holds it's own in the final much better than others. Not directly interested at all in this one.
11. CROATIA
I'm not buying the sudden 360° turn some are in this being a challenger for the televote win. My reading is that this was 5th-8th in the semi and not something more eyebrow raising but I guess we'll soon find out. Views have been strong all year with this but look highly concentated: big televote scores but with not enough consistency and really should be bottom 5 with juries where 0 will be by far the most common score given. Whilst you’d not say no to going 25th, the draw is also relatively insignificant for an entry as memorable and divisive as this. It's likely here to try and help the UK more than anything. Overall, it'll do fine and I expect it to just about scrape a 3 figure televote.
10. AUSTRIA
Austria have been nerfed by the draw and if there was an ‘exchange a few televotes for more jury votes’ idea that has also back fired now. This is Below 3 figures on both sides of the vote, but a low top 10 wouldn't surprise- there is still televote appeal.
9. SWITZERLAND
This is proper jury bait where ‘originality’ is the only criteria missing for a real top tier score. Away from the contenders however this feels the most likely to receive the big jury push, more so than an Estonia say. The televote is going to be lower of course but overall this could cling on to a top 10 spot.
8. SPAIN
I've kept a very close eye on Spain and it remains a tough one to call. Overall my opinion is it is too well performed, striking and memorable not to be in the top 10. The jury score of around 150 I have for this feels low but it's easy for this to be overlooked as simply noise, and let’s face it, in studio or as a ‘composition’ it's easy to poke holes in. The signs are this is another entry too difficult Europe wide on a first listen but this will generate votes. 8th feels the lowest this will be and is a long way ahead of the previously mentioned Switzerland.
7. NORWAY
Norway has floated from 5th to 10th for much of the year and remains in that area. Alessandra delivered another unconvincing vocal last night and I'm expecting a sub 3 figure jury score, although it will probably do better than it should really. On the televote, Alessandra is a very likeable lead and there are plenty of signs this is well liked. From 20th in the running order it would be surprising if it wasn't in the top 5 on that count.
6. UKRAINE
We all know the deal with Ukraine so I'm not going to spend too long here. There's a hidden televote of some size but it looks impossible for that to be enough for the win with jury signs poor. I think 7th is a fair overall guess but there's room a wide swing.
5. FRANCE
France has yo-yo'd around in my predictions a bit but this might be a happy middle ground between my original thoughts and the very encouraging pre contest metrics and statistics. Now if any country is liable to underperform it's France but I still picture this doing well with both the public and more so the juries. All aspects of the live are perhaps 8/10 but for anyone who wasn't expecting God-tier staging from seeing the rehearsal pictures first (99% of people) this does the job. There’s lots for juries to like and it certainly benefits from being somewhat safe which is a big advantage against Spain or Finland with the ranking system.
4. ITALY
For full disclosure, you’d probably group me as an Italo-phile. They've been my pre rehearsals tip in '21 and’ 22, San Remo is my preferred national final. I even ate a pizza the other night. I've been keen on Italy all season and have found some of the odds surprising. It's true this has a lower ceiling than it's big 5 rivals but it's a very reliable package. This is coming into the contest with a strong Eurojury score, a clear niche as the heart-throb and now has as favourable draw as possible in the first half. Marco’s staging gimmick blends so much into the background that it's barely been discussed but it does add a layer of memorability and for my money adds some additional jury worthiness to the mix. This is top 4 jury material and should be getting 100 televote points minimum. Comparing the final products, draw and field I'd be amazed if this did worse than ‘Brividi’ last year.
3. ISRAEL
The draw has opened up very nicely for Israel and Noa is well placed to grab a spot on the podium. Whilst any running order impact on juries is much more minimal, they're only human- this is by far the best overall package in the second half (more so if you question Armenia). Israel is sat in a sea of irrelevant, average or divisive numbers and blows Norway and The UK's performances out of the water- compare Noa to Allesandra and Mae and it's an absolute no contest. This would be doing well regardless, but that is perhaps the extra gas needed. On the televote, I'm still being a bit reserved and make it a tight battle with Norway. Still there is a world in which this can get 200+ televotes and even nab a silver medal.
2. FINLAND
I won't spend too long on our final two as I've said it all before and there's nothing new to really add. Often the early previews age like milk with little to go off but Finland's this year is looking pretty solid and all the math still stands. 130ish jury (with all the odds-leader favouritism in the world), and fine, let’s say 300 televotes - it's very very hard to see that being close to enough and the real price of making those maths and ranges work or all our indicators being wrong is 10+. Unless we are significantly under-rating the jury appeal of this of course…
1.SWEDEN
Sweden have to be 150 pts clear of Finland (and Ukraine) in any sane jury vote. There is no statistic in the world you can find that would suggest they are anywhere close to 150 televotes behind either. There's then very little argument that those closer on the jury (who still look a way back) could possibly beat Loreen on a televote given all the data we have, or even hold onto a lead. I don't believe ‘Tattoo’ to be an unbeatable package in general, there are several entries over the years and circumstances that would have gave Loreen a run for her money. This year however, there just doesn't seem to be anything. Eurovision is never a done deal and it’s plausible Sweden pick up just 240 jury points and 190 TV if the pack was to be congested. The thing is, even that might be enough….
Sweden just have a great package that is exceptionally well rounded and unbelievably competitive in a song contest.
I’d place the winning chance somewhere around 75-80%.
Points Estimation
I've ran the numbers a few times but obviously my own reading of the stats and speculation plays a large part still. Note these figures are averages and roundings.
Combined Placing (Jury Ranking/ TV Ranking) Points Estimate (Jury/T.V)
Sweden (1st/2nd) 545 (298/247)
Finland (7th/1st) 427 (133/287)
Israel (4th/4th) 341 (186/155)
Italy (2nd/6th) 335 (195/140)
France (3rd/8th) 294 (188/106)
Ukraine (8th/3rd) 272 (96/176)
Norway (9th/5th) 242 (90/152)
Spain (6th/11th) 223 (150/73)
Switzerland (5th/23rd) 172 (154/18)
Austria (14th/9th) 145 (52/93)
Croatia (20th/7th) 140 (27/113)
Belgium (10th/13th) 131 (70/61)
Poland (25th/10th) 111 (19/92)
Armenia (12th/15th) 105 (55/52)
Czechia (13th/17th) 102 (53/49)
Cyprus (15th/19th) 92 (51/41)
Moldova (24th/12th) 89 (21/68)
Lithuania (22nd/14th) 80 (23/57)
Estonia (11th/26th) 76 (62/12)
Serbia (23rd/16th) 72 (23/49)
Germany (19th/20th) 71 (30/41)
Slovenia (17th/21st) 71 (37/30)
Portugal (18th/22nd) 59 (35/24)
The UK (16th/25th) 54 (38/16)
Albania (26th/18th) 51 (8/43)
Australia (21st/24th) 46 (30/16)
My Position
As I'm sure you'd imagine I’m heavily on the side of Sweden and they would be a very nice win. It wouldn't top 2017 or 2021 in terms of ROI but would be my biggest return. Alternatively, Israel and Italy would be more than acceptable too if the seemingly impossible were to happen, mainly as a result of each way backing.
Ukraine would be around breakeven with Finland a small to medium red: I'm OK taking a calculated risk on this one. Perhaps an opportunity will arise during jury voting but I assume many will be planning the same sort of trade so the value to probability ratio will remain low I imagine.
The rest of the field is pretty irrelevant and can easily be covered if needed.
Top Big 5 I'm hoping for Italy (value call I'm feeling very happy with) and top Baltic Lithuania (looking a coin toss now).
Italy, Israel, Norway are my top 10 backs all at higher than current odds, whilst the lays are Australia, Germany and with a heavy heart Armenia (forgive me my future lover, it will help put our future children through college).
Switzerland (good value still) and Austria (fairly priced) are my more speculative top 10 backs to complete the lineup.
Last place I've weighted heavily towards Australia at prices as high as 81, with Slovenia 30s+, Albania 12+, Germany 9+ greened with some cover on Portugal (7s) and The UK ( 8s). I don't remember a race as interesting as this one for the wooden spoon as there's another couple not of the hook entirely.
Good luck to all and enjoy the show, we'll be back here with all the fall-out and analysis in due course.