Finland 2026: Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen with - Liekinheitin
Time for the current Eurovision favourites in Finland, who have been sitting pretty for some time now with Linda and Pete:
Me and this Finnish song, or at least it's status as strong favourite, have our differences but this is maybe the most balanced of the contenders if that counts for anything and I can understand the arguments for this. It's an instant song and clearly one of the better and more distinctive this year where so many are anonymous. It's top of the polling, been streaming and racking up views strongly, should do well if not win the returning Eurojury (for what that counts) and is the go-to retort whenever someone says "I think it's an open year". The stats and fan opinion really do back this up but there is a bit more of a default winner vibe too and in fact the majority of the betting folk are pretty against this too, certainly from a likelihood proposition so what is going to become a bit of a negative review isn't so unusual and again not a reflection on this being a bad entry in any way, just I believe significantly over hyped so I’m forced into the arguing against the win angle than championing top 10 or podium hopes.
The balance I see with this is also it's drawback as I have a bit of a hard time trying to point to who this is for primarily in terms of demographics beyond the clear Northern Europe lean. There are edgier more modern entries from Sweden and Denmark, more fun entries from Greece, and more 'points in the bank' entries from Ukraine and Israel if we are going there. A big spanner too at least for me is Italy, where I think Sal Da Vinci is a surprisingly close competitor for the casual, more mature, but still looking for something fun sort of audience. And then France, Czechia and Australia are on paper more traditional jury bait. And this is just touching on the songs under 100-1 on the exchange.
Staging is also a case of a bit of a mismatch to me. Like 99% of the Eurovision audience that can vote for this in May, I don't speak Finnish and do tend to avoid translations if I can to try and keep things closer to what casuals will see which I’ve managed to do with this. To me melodically this is more of a happy song which is where my Sal comparison comes in, or at the most bitter-sweet. It's a bit of a throwback to the late 2000s era of Eurovision too for me, perhaps because peak violin was kind of reached in that period. I don't really get the confessional (pigeon coop) and everything is on fire staging beyond the idea this needs to look cinematic and dramatic at the climax. A reason I was sceptical too before the staging was regarding the dynamics of this duet. Pete's smoldering into the camera and singing works until the last notes, Linda is a bit more of a loose end here relegated to pretending to play the Violin. It's just not quite there. The staging is objectively not bad and I don't actually think there's much of a way for this to ever convince me live but we're unlikely to see many (any) changes regardless.
Finland can win, but I do believe their path to doing so is a bit of an awkward one with a lot of entries that can match or exceed this on the Televote and I'm not sold on the juries either - judgement call but this just isn't really what jurors are looking for in most year's interpretations of the criteria. The winning path I believe is some sort of 200+200, which my gut feeling says will be closer to 140+140, there's just something with this that I can't quite express beyond the vibes are just a bit off and this doesn't make an entirely cohesive package.
Lastly, on Finland the cult of UMK I think has gone too far. The best one night only show on the calender for sure and probably the highest average song quality year on year battling Italy should you count Sanremo but with the advantage of a much smaller field. UMK threw up 7 entries all of which would probably be expected to qualify for the final this year but no other serious challenger and Pete and Linda's victory there in the context isn't overly conclusive (nor are the equally dominant wins for Ferto, Leleka, Lelek, Bangaranga, FELICIA?, Alexandra Capitanescu, Satoshi et al). Finland also failed to make the top 10 even last year with a song not entirely dissimilar to this: bombastic, dramatic, camp, fan favourite. Sub 3 feels like a lot of weight being applied to brand Finland where it may not be quite as applicable as to a Sweden, Italy or Ukraine who have shown consistency and the ability to overperform.
Potential winner, but a much wider range on this than the odds suggest. Maybe when I do some more thorough maths I'll change my mind, but this feels more 5th-6th to me right now with a much better performance in the more fan heavier voting and jury lacking semi one than in the final.
Personal Rating: 15/20
Televote Potential: 17/20
Jury Potential: 17/20
Staging Potential: 16/20
Track Record: 16/20
Overall Rating: 81/100
Early Prediction: Semi One 1st - 4th, 4th-7th in the Final.
Volatility Factor: 3/5 I could just be wrong...