France 2026: Monroe with ‘Regarde!’
France were quiet for a long time this year before a flurry of rumours, news and leaks followed by the quick release of Monroe’s ‘Regarde’
This seems like a(nother) quite cynical attempt by France to win the competition and they are certainly a broadcaster who has twigged how to if not game the jury system, make it hard to be overlooked. If they wheel out a prop for Monroe to interact with it will be even more clear.
It's a bit of a problem and a shame for her that true or not that has been primary reaction, although it's pleasently surprising to see she's doing OK in a bunch of the metrics.
The question is how true does any of this hold for the contest and France's chances. How heavily will the juries swing for this and are televoters going to be left moderately cold by this inevitably or as a result of some form of opera fatigue. There's obviously a clear difference between this package and JJ, and Nemo too who is lumped in as 'Opera' too for a few notes in the bridge. Unfortunately the difference to me is immediate impact.
I was never the strongest fan of either of those entries nor the raging hater that may be made out -go check the Austria review and points estimations- but both hit harder on a first listen. People backed those to win on hearing the songs, whereas France saw this rise to 2nd/3rd favouritism on reveal of their plans, with 'Regarde' feeling more, "alright, can keep them in the discussion" than anything else. This just kind of bobs about and is good but doesn't really stand out from the field even with the vocals and styling.
I personally really like Monroe's look and she's quite expressive, maybe more capable of conveying emotion than Louanne turned out to be last year but that needs to be channelled well and I'm still left really cold by this. I think the theatricality of this and vocal flourishes are just too much and style over substance doing as much as possible to elevate the composition. I also wish this was deeper lyrically, not like it matters directly, but just in giving a sense of purpose or direction, some angle for the staging to take, some sense of authenticity. France of course infamously came unstuck as a big opera favourite back in 2011 when something was just a little off and I'm getting some similar vibes here. I am meant to be wowed, and I'm not.
More than anything I think the overall problem here, and I'm being very critical and holding this to a high standard - it should be safely in the top 10- is that what makes this a great jury entry makes it a "bad" Televote one and I don't know if those two positions can be reconciled.
Staging will make or break this as for all and I don’t have that sense of where this is going: whether we'll get more child Monroe imagery, the Eiffel Tower for the 14th time or something new. France have generally been visually strong and this is something that can be elevated watching a big stage live performance.
I tweeted my snap reaction to this of a Jury 275, Televote 115. On reflection, I think it might prove a little lower on both sides unless the live performance actually works *emotionally*. Jurors do have no option but to reward this at least moderately and it's hard to justify leaving this out of a top 10 unless you are moving all in on the originality angle and also overlooking that no one else is re-inventing the wheel this year either. There will also be those who do genuinely rate France highly and assuming the live is technically fine that's fair.
I think I'm now feeling this more around the 240J +80TV level which is a substantial downgrade considering nothing really showed up from the countries revealing after with maybe one exception. I'm also cautious of having rated France's hopes highly last year and 'Maman' intrinsically still feels the stronger entry of the pair, not accounting for the likely lower winning threshold this year.
Even with that, I don't think France will be particularly close when the final results are in but will probably stick around until then in the reckoning. I'll re-assess based on what Eurojury does with this and how the live turns out, for now my Spidey sense just isn't tingling.
Personal Rating: 12/20
Televote Potential: 14/20
Jury Potential: 19/20
Staging Potential: 18/20
Track Record: 18/20
Overall Rating: 81/100
Early Prediction: 5th-8th in the Final.
Volatility Factor: 4/5 Certainly a left hand side finish but few true guaranteed points and there’s a case for anywhere from 1st-12th depending on the performance, jury tastes, running order and if there is any “opera fatigue” that actually carries over into reality.