Luxembourg 2026: Eva Marija with ‘Mother Nature’
With a quieter national finals week it’s time to take a look back at one of the earlier selected entries with ‘Mother Nature’ which easily but a little surprisingly won through in Luxembourg.
It's been less a case of slowly coming back to life for Luxembourg and more instant relative success for the country since their return to the contest. This might have to swim against the tide more than Tali and Laura Thorn to keep the qualifying streak going and already their dreams of qualifying are looking a little haunted. There are scant few reasons for Luxembourg to keep their heads up right now…
This isn't a bad entry it’s just neither my kind of song at all or anything that stands out from the field and is the sort in danger of getting 6/10 ratings and then being forgotten. The performance is fine and even though Luxembourg had better options, this was a deserving winner on the night. Eva Marija is likeable but I do find this a bit grating and clichéd to the point I can pick apart every aspect of this and see the Eurovision or mainstream song it was borrowed from. Regular viewers won’t have as much baggage with this and might enjoy some of the familiarity and non challenging (mother) nature of this but there is a sheen of inautheticity here.
The saving grace is the return of jurors to the semi finals which gives this a chance as its already hard to see Luxembourg with a first half draw and no real banked points make the televote top 10 already. Whilst I don’t think this is a jury darling either (top 3 in the semi for example) it’s a semi that has yet to take real shape on that side so there is currently a path through, which could rapidly close in the coming weeks, but is still there for now with a lot of unknown countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Australia, Czechia we have no artist from, Switzerland and Bulgaria no song from and Norway and Romania with landmines they could step on - Hi Skrellex 👋 😏 ).
Currently if you want to argue a Jury 5th, Televote 9th in the semi or something I’ll hear out your position but realistically thats probably 3/4 spots too high with each, and why this is 50 instead of 500 outright is beyond me.
I do think the only battle is to qualify or not and this is definitely more out than in for me even if Luxembourg can likely be relied on to make this look quite good and overall feels like a 2/1 shot to qualify currently. If it did make it through its on for a single figure Televote in the final and a likely bottom 5 spot.
Personal Rating: 6/20
Staging Potential: 11/20
Televote Potential: 5/20
Jury Potential: 13/20
Track Record: 12/20
Overall Rating: 47/100
Early Prediction: Semi Two 10th-13th, 21st-25th if in the Final.
Volatility Factor: 1/5 You could argue there's some real jury range here but I just don't see anything notable or this threatening in any betting market beyond to Q or not. Televote range can be pretty confidently assigned as low and not expecting either a disastrous or transformative staging.