Ukraine 2026: Leleka with ‘Ridnym’
In one of the more straightforward Vidbir’s, the Ukrainian jury and public both chose Leleka and her ‘Ridnym’ as the entry for Vienna.
From the first hearing, whilst this was neither my personal favourite from Ukraine's options this year or the international fandom's favourite, it was the entry I was most curious about. After all, we have seen how Jerry Heil and Monokate would get on at the contest and Laud was Ukraine's annual random fancy: this keeps things a bit more uncertain.
I'm not anybody to dictate to Ukraine what kind of tone of entry they want to send, but it is nice to get something more forward looking and positive but tasteful. We've had Jamala's Tree of Woe and 10 years on we have Leleka's flower of hope. Throwing the politics back in there this sort of narrative refresh is timely I feel to re-engage neutral voters and if any ceasefire finally comes would be a strong statement.
I've mentioned the politics up front because that can't be stripped away from this and is doing a lot of the work in keeping this high in the odds, as is Ukraine's semmingly absolute minimum 150 televote points, and their excellent staging history: This wouldn't be considered a contender from most other countries.
The reason for that is because it's mainly a big note with another 2 and a half minutes glued on. There is variation, switching into Ukrainian, tempo changes but nothing that currently leaves a huge impression. Leleka is a good vocalist and performer, and I think the song just about carries enough interest to make it to the big moment. This isnt miles apart from tone and vibe than Switzerland's 0 Televote point entry last year. Obviously that’s not a prediction for this.
The lyrics are simplistic and sweet in their own way for that but the ESL factor is another part that has me questioning jury appeal: this is a bit easier to pick apart from a writing perspective and doesn't have the full package on that front whilst the Vidbir jury is one of the more easily dismissed/unindicative national final ones - success there doesn't mean a great deal to me.
Ultimately, our Vienna version of staging is likely to be similar to Vidbir but on steroids. It works well enough there but the difference can be night and day in effectiveness and Ukraine are usually top tier at getting the visuals right.
Actual predictions and as said we're starting from 150 on the Televote and working up from there, Ukraine have lost some diaspora support amongst the withdrawing countries but Moldova and Romania should offset some of that. Realistically, I'd guess 180-240 televote points. Even though you'd usually argue a strong vocal performance of a ballad is more of a jury thing my guess on that side is wider and lower and more in the 100-200 region, assuming staging is strong. At the top end, that puts Ukraine in with a chance at this stage and very competitive against anything else floating about currently, very competitive depending on how jury friendly and willing to support this they may be.
Ultimately more likely to end 5th than 1st but not to be discounted so early.
Personal Rating: 12/20
Staging Potential: 19/20
Televote Potential: 18/20
Jury Potential: 16/20
Track Record: 19/20
Overall Rating: 84/100
Early Prediction: Semi Final One 1st-3rd, 3rd-7th in the Final.
Volatility Factor 2/5
- Good things can be assured from Ukraine and Leleka and the base vote gives stability with just any political developments which could have a (sizeable) impact.