Why do we like to hate on Finland?

I’ll give a warning from the outset here that whilst I wanted to write something insightful about Finland it’s quite a difficult task at this stage. Most of the arguments are the same they have been for months and boil down to the overall “the fan metrics are overstating the appeal”. Maybe if there’s any value to this article it will be as a posterity piece to look back on, whether Finland win or lose. There is no real conclusion or eureka moment in here, just some repetition and a bit of a summary of the situation. You have been warned.

Following on from Denmark the other day, Finland are the other contender that I've never really found the inspiration to back, at least not since pre-song when I thought, “hey they've been decent lately, 20+ is worth a stab”. I subsequently have the grand total of £4 matched on them on the exchange. With 'Liekinheitin' being released Finland steadily rose in the odds, first to 7s in January, 5s throughout February and 3+ into the start of March, after that its mainly bobbed around 2.8-3 until the last few days where it's priced now at 2.3 ish or a 43% chance at winning.

Obviously with hindsight, broadly ignoring this has been the error of mine over the season, but with that admission out of the way, I must also say I am in so good on enough others based on current odds and avoided enough landmines (not that there have been too many) that it doesn't hugely matter. I've also scaled back outright betting this year so both combined I could back Finland right now, balance things out and still be on track for a solid win.

I still don't particularly want to do that however and I'd say once again right now Finland are not as likely as the odds suggest to go and win - undoubtedly a contender with a good chance at doing so, but 43%? Similar to that Denmark piece where the point of the article was not to throw shade at them or entirely dismiss, I do think there's a possibility of Copenhagen next year, but the chance is really overstated in the odds.

Anyway, that personal story and situation is not unique to me. I won't name names here but on my x circle I'd say around 90% of market commentators, Eurovision traders, betting bros or odds monkeys, whatever you wish to call us have expressed similar sentiments all season long - that Finland's likelihood of winning is over-estimated.

For brevity, the huge collection of arguments against this are:

- Issues with the staging and what emotional narrative it's conveying.

- Questions over the dynamic between Pete and Linda and if a duet of this style can engage.

- Belief Finland and UMK are held in too high regard in the fandom, irrelevantly inflating perceptions of this.

- Theories this might not travel geographically in a more eastern leaning contest.

- "It's not winning the jury/It's not winning the Televote/It's not winning either"

- Finnish language might limit jury appeal.

- Competition from Nordics and Australia

- More of a fan bubble entry than a casual's

- Not what juries have been rewarding heavily recently

- Pete's vocal questioned

- And I'll throw in the longshot theory that perceived favouritism may backfire

Win or not, relevant or not that last one and ViolinGate might end up being the narrative of the year inside the bubble with victory put down to that or the moment things changed and began to crack on the pretty unanimous fan love.

Of course this is a very negative list about the entry, we tend to focus on those when it’s a short priced favourite - take it as a compliment Finland! - and there's lots of pros:

It is cinematic, as complete and balanced a package there might be between fun/serious/credible and above of all the stats can't really be argued with - Finland are top of most fan metrics, which without getting into the representativeness or not of that, some of their margins - in particular on the Eurovision world poll, their OGAE landslide or public Eurojury voting are very impressive. It doesn't exactly work like this, but even if they are liked half as much by the general public there's still a top 3 Televote in there implied by the numbers. To focus on OGAE in particular for a moment, an entry entirely flopping after winning that is rare, there's basically only Sweden 2008, Hungary 2011 and Malta 2021 in there who failed with the public to a notable degree.

Now, for comparisons with the first two I will just leave this here for one to make their own interpretations:

Whether this is a conscious or subconscious bias many in the market might hold or not, I don't know, obviously 'Liekinheitin' has not been compared to 'Hero' or 'What About My Dreams' for good reason but at the end of the day it's a question on if the Televote will hold any biases either and how the different factor of Pete contributes. Public voting can be pretty brutal and the fandom overly invested in their slaying queens.

An interesting casse study

Despite the visuals, it's actually the Malta 2021 scenario which is probably more relevant to look at in terms of an entry where most of the current cohort of betting folk who are similarly against Finland now were saying similar things over "Je Me Casse". Whilst all the usual metrics held it up as a worthwhile favourite, many pundits were more keen on Italy, France and Bulgaria.

Malta that year never reached the heights in the odds that Finland have this, and likewise their poll topping was more marginal in some aspects but they are the recent example of what many pundits expect/hope/think may happen here: Juries reward Finland but not decisively so and the package doesn't connect as expected with the public being too fan coded and not vote-motivating enough -in its own different way. No one in their right mind is expecting Finland to end as dismally on the Televote as these OGAE letdowns, I don't even think anyone at this stage would predict a spot outside of the top 5 on that metric being truthful. This year’s Finnish entry holds more casual appeal than last year’s to which it has been compared and has the ability to get points from a pretty wide demographic, but in terms of winning falling from 1st in fan polls to 4th in the televote depending on points can make things difficult.

Overall many foresee a 3/3 split or something similar such as a 2/4 which is an inherently uncomfortable thing to count on, even if the maths seems to suggest a clear path with an apparent lack of consensus this year. From followers polled earlier, a 2/2 split is seen as a pretty certain victory for Finland, whilst dropping to a 3/3 puts them at 60%, still ahead of current odds whilst a 4th or lower consensus sees them effectively ruled out. You can infer the other possibilities from those and these overall hold together pretty well logically with the odds we’re seeing.

The problem with this path is that even if very viable in a year like this, there is still little margin for error. Just assume for the purposes of this argument Finland does finish third on both, it's score is immediately therefore capped on both sides and it's theoretically vulnerable to 4 countries. 400-450 is expected to be enough and the Televote or jury vote is not currently expected to result in a 300+ landslide etc but the situation is still a little uncomfortable for a 2.2 favourite. In general, traders aren’t fans of backing something they don't think wins either side - the path is cleaner and there's always the chance things do reach more of an extreme than expected. This is why Greece has been turned to in most places as the alternative and received the most pre-rehearsal endorsement amongst betting folk, seen as more of a reliable televote threat. If we could collectively agree on a jury winner from Australia, France or Denmark in the same way they too might be placed above Finland in general predictions.

A Losing Game

Taking the pre-contest stats as a whole and at face value, Finland undoubtably are in the lead, followed by Denmark, and notably now we are past second rehearsals those chinks in the armour many expected are beginning to show- rehearsal stats are not particularly impressive, countered of course by the fact we are still in the bubble and these are skewed by randomness, diaspora engagement we don’t want to double count and the fact Finland’s staging is already known. None of this has halted Finland’s shortening in the market with question marks on the alternatives: What we have seen of Greece (not much) is a little concerning, Australia too are holding back their moment, Romania and Italy impressed more in stills and description than snippet whilst Sweden and Denmark as known quantities have also not had much attention given to them and “I preferred the national final energy” comments and Israel’s staging is basically a non factor in the debate on their chances. France, starting further back than expected at the time of release is the only chaser who’s made progress in the odds the last week. This, plus the live violin news, has given Finland it’s reinforced lead in the odds which will be unasailable until the early hours of Wednesday. Seeing Greece (and maybe another as a buffer) significantly ahead in the stats and a suboptimal half draw would probably be required to dislodge them then.

Whilst I don’t expect either semi final to necessarily correlate to the final result, if Finland are to be beaten I do believe “progress” needs to be made in the next week: a new narrative, a more streamlined 1-2 challengers, a sense of vulnerability beyond the betting corners of the internet, an odds drift etc. Pete and Linda have made it through the season so far with barely a hiccup and Finland have basically been shortening non-stop for 4 months straight, if a hurdle finally presents itself in the coming days it will be fascinating to see how the market reacts.