Eurovision 2025 Season Review

Well, an overall very random year and for the results, there is so much going on that it's hard to put together a cohesive review - Huge diaspora and political voting, big switcheroos from semi to final voting and stuff just casually doing better or worse than expected. If there is an overall theme, it’s one of a lack of casual engagement, seen in some of the early viewing figures and which also explains some of the results. Ukraine's political victory, two jury landslides over the “people's champions”, The Joost saga and Israel situation may have caught up to the contest. Basel was supposed to be a chance to heal after last year, instead the injuries look deeper.

First off, we start as we should with a congratulations to Austria who did end up winning through the Nemo route, coupled with that semi final flop but pulling it back in the final. The semis and final have never looked like two more entirely seperate events with Estonia and Sweden also underperforming in semi 1 but to then make it to second and third in the public vote. What is going on here, complacency? That lack of engagement? people voting for who they want to qualify rather than win? Greatly different audiences? More powerful diaspora? It's hard entirely to pin down and seems a combination of all. If the semi results were presented to us we'd probably have had a set of odds looking like:

Israel 4

France 5

Netherlands 6

Ukraine 11

Latvia 12

Austria 18

Greece 36

Albania 36

Estonia 70

Sweden 70

Which would have been just as if not more inaccurate to the final result. Or, would the presence of these odds instead cause the result to shift more towards that?

Anyway, Austria was kind of called accurately here. I had him second but that was a typically second place score which wasn't too far from what I calculated. Right to be cautious on this and more optimistic than many but only real shout out to Tim B from the betting folk for really having this winning throughout, unless I’ve missed anyone. A win was made on this and some e/w collected but not as good a win as Sweden or France or select outsiders would have been. The no similar winner in consecutive years streak going back to the early 2000s ethno bop run is broken.

Israel, well, there was next to zero drop off from last year - maybe some, since the televote competition turned out far, far weaker. I am surprised at that. We saw Russia oscilate from NQs, missing the top 10, placing and winning televotes baring resemblance to song quality (not far off at all honestly). Even post '22 we've seen Ukraine vary from what looks a 150pt floor to 300+s depending on how strong they are. Israel themselves in the past have received every score going from the televote pre' 24.The signs really weren't there as much this year as last but they got the votes out. Is a 300pt starting score completely indefinite now? Because Keren Peles has 10 more mediocre ballads at the ready I'm sure. Tied to the advertising? Dunno. Gut says again things have to fall away eventually but everyone will be really spooked by that if there's a status quo in score format.

Estonia was one of the better calls this year and I'd been huge on this E/W, mainly for those place odds to top up top4/5 positions. There was a point in the results the miracle win looked on but it wasn't to be. I didn't think the draw would affect this but I do wonder if it was swapped with Sweden and had slightly tighter vocals… Semi result a surprise, even if it is more Saturday night. Not quite 24 carate, but a big contributer to returns this year.

Sweden ending 4th wasn't the biggest surprise of the night, despite me being on them all year. The juries thought it was far more gimmicky than we did, the televote was still strong, but not what we thought and it proved more regional than I expected. Happens. There were signs with the audience poll not being decisive like Kaarijaa or Baby Lasagna, but everything else did look promising - at least for a 250+ televote. Semi result is more shocking that this couldn't even top 3 which was something like 1.02 I assume. Layed off a chunk once those first televote results came in, particularly the Norway one, suggesting a more condensed pack - similar to having to dump a lot of Croatia in running last year.

Italy's result is something that was always possible, and something I shouldn't have got involved with speculating on given that. I guess the lesson is whatever comes through Sanremo is destined for success of some form or another and an overperformance is likely, unless you're female, but the Italians typically sort that problem in advance. Didn't directly hit me too much as restricted myself to cheaper top 15 lays and jury points and top big 5 was a market I stayed out of.

Greece got a brilliant result for Klavdia and ended up being a good win for me, belatedly going in for the Top 10 and backing that hard in the last days. Had doubts previously but landed very well and followed it in. Best score in over a decade and they are back on a roll like its the 2000s again (we don't speak about Victor Vernicos).

France was misread by all, the very modest jury score was more surprising than the La Zarra televote - there were warning signs there which is why I'd cooled on it. Very disappointed this couldn't make the top 4 however with some E/W stacked up and France themselves will be let down by this result after going all-out. Winning is hard.

Albania are tiebreaked into 8th place thanks to their superior televote over Ukraine. One I was always keen on as a top 10er, potentially a bit harshly treated by the jury but understandable. Would have liked this to land top Balkan too (letting down the regional group favs I had) but that market remains prone to an upset.

Ukraine squeek into 9th and I was pretty accurate with this on the whole, slightly higher TV than expected and surely close to Ukraine's floor has been found. Winning the semi final a huge upset, and yes, another problematic result. That they are a "popular" country with the fandom and Europe in general, and far less controversial and nuanced than Israel, doesn't mean this result shouldnt receive scrutiny and is an issue for the contests reputation.

Switzerland was predicted in the top 10 on jury alone and boy did that come to pass. Overall, I think 10th is a fair outcome for this, but the 0 televote points undoubtedly harsh. Hosts continue to be unpopular with the public.

Finland and The Netherlands were the two favourites to narrowly miss the top 10. Respectable results and points hauls, both were hurt by their draws vs their top 3 semi spots. A bit lower than I expected both to end overall but nothing hugely shocking. Opposing Claude worked out well in the end, less so for the semi top 3 where I was already counting my winnings after that TV score.

The rest of the board looks pretty reasonable and theres nothing from 13th-26th a million miles away from what I had.

I had a lot of entries backed for last and most were somewhere down there. Big favourites UK were well dodged despite predicting the 0 televotes along with most of my followers. San Marino weren't one of my prime candidates, but it's San Marino, the high price of 51! will always be value. After Norway last year I am on a better roll in that market.

Semi results show it was indeed Australia on the borderline (again) in semi 2 with very little to split the rest except Montenegro who's entire 12pts came from Serbia. Cyprus was just two points off San Marino in the first semi with an interesting vote distribution. Nothing else was overly close. The supposed "borderliners" of Iceland and particularly Latvia with their second place! qualified by a mile. Laughably, Azerbaijan received 7pts all from the one jury there and they are running at a woeful average televote score of 3.75 televote points in the last 4 semi finals.

It’s a good winning year but like last, one with an incorrect (and even more far off) headline prediction. What this year has done is shown that none of us overall or even combined are any closer to solving all the riddles this contest holds.

Broader Thoughts

Same one as ever here - The random draw must be brought back, or at the very least quarters need to be drawn - which is more than enough to keep the styles and flow of the show going, without having the ability to drastically meddle. The whole claim is that every song is given a chance to shine and ensure interest is kept throughout. Well, the public's favourite song was dumped third. Estonia could have been placed anywhere later and that would surely have got them the 2+ points needed to give the EBU a far better split screen and save them a bit of the increased grief and scrutiny. Molto stresso - could have been prevento.

Another Bjorkman decision to backfire was the pimping of France and Switzerland (by surrounding it with filler) who it turns out were both d.o.a on the televote - likely at the expense of The Netherlands whose semi performance suggests they had something of a chance at top 5 and 10. Financially, cheers Christer, but otherwise it's evidence the producers themselves (much like us apparently) cannot second guess what "makes a good show" for the viewers anyway.

As for the success of that meddling - it's not affecting the diaspora or political voting on the standout issues of Ukraine or Israel one iota, and has been implemented under the traditional earlier=worse assumption at the same time as opening lines from the start. That is a real miscalculation in my opinion, it's giving more time for these political votes whilst potentially not helping anyone else (according to the 2010-2011 experiment and some of what we've seen these last two years). A muddled approach that is having the reverse impact and putting all the eggs in too few baskets.

The EBU only needed one more country to fail in the televote and they get their nightmare scenario. Whilst anyone doing the maths would disagree in running, Austria getting 99 or less would have been seen just as if not more likely than France's 50, Sweden's 195, Netherlands’ 42 or Switzerland's 0. Easy in the end, but nervy.

And I'll make the same point again - the reason the host draws randomly still is an acknowledgement that the producers may not be trusted to objectively place it - or even if that's not true the optics are bad. Why therefore is a Swedish producer given power over where that country is placed? Whether KAJ are favourites and 'deserving' or last in the odds, it's just not a good look.

Televoting must be kept but needs a radical overhaul. App only - rank your ten favourites myescscoreboard style which is tallied to give a country's top 10? That would ensure Ukraine, Israel (and other diasporas) can only gain a two point lead over another entry from an individual. The many neutrals blanking or voting on merit would cancel this out nationwide and deliver a far more consensus orientated set of results. Anti-voting may be an issue, as would the inability to champion genuine, earnest, televote favs to the fullest, but it's better than what we have currently. 1 vote per number or to each country an easier to implement solution but likely not as effective, nor at countering the blatant sim manipulating also seen. The finances and revenue streams are opaque but likely hit although at this point it's about saving the brand. Maybe the bigger broadcasters complaining can put their money where their mouth is and up funding in exchange for the loss of Israeli political coin generated. Heck, charge a Euro or two to rank all countries in the app and it might increase money by upselling to those who vote once, I don't know. My application for the ESC director role was turned down, so I don't need to analyse these ideas too much - but someone should be.

Jury voting remains problematic but doesn't make the headlines this year. It shouldn't get a free pass because of the convenience of their winner preventing meltdown but the importance of them being present in some form after this year proved diaspora and political voting has been shown. The obvious starting point is still the same - bigger, more diverse juries, potentially individuals being made to score entries out of 100 or something as they go.

I'd introduce these two reforms simultaneously next year and re-establish them in the semi finals - I don't think we're getting completely undeserving qualifiers, but the result release does leave a sour taste.

Another (more) likely outcome is that broadcasters kick up a fuss way in advance and Israel is thrown out indefinitely. Whilst Israel is not responsible for some of the most vocal broadcasters failings this year (Spain, Belgium, Ireland), their low results coupled with that televote will increase frustration. If the politics of participation is not enough, a sense of unfairness towards the scoreboard that has proven not to be a one off might tip the balance.

In fact I see rtve have already started up again whilst I’ve been writing this on and off all morning. Some I'm sure have a quiet issue with Azerbaijan (or Georgia) but as long as they keep failing and being judged on merit no one really cares much. Again though, I wouldn't want the inclusion or exclusion of countries to be the only answer to this year's results. I want a fix that solves as much as the political voting as possible, whilst still allowing viewers to have a say, not one that simply removes the unpopular and most blatant example from the game.

As for all the rehearsals and reduced access, It feels like an overreach and just led to more leaks at the benefit of nothing really. Rehearsal criticism (and hype) is part of the process - Stagings and performances are going to be praised or dumped on eventually. Second rehearsals should be opened up a bit more again but I doubt this will happen and isn't a priority right now. The new split screen qualifiers format is something I'm neutral to positive on but does weaken their "protecting the artists" claim. At the end of the day the tension and drama of a qualifiers announcement is determined mainly by the unpredictability of the entries and the results themselves. A positive to give is that the production and stage was visually top tier this year, albeit with some audio mixing issues and vocals too low for many entries. Our three hosts all did a good job and each brought something different to the role.

Anyway, that's enough with destroying any future accreditation for this year. I do think we are at a point where something will change anyway so bear that in mind if jumping in early to 2026 betting and blind speculating. What that change will be I don't know, but it's time for Osterdahl and company to start taking these issues seriously. This is not just fandom grumbling and can't be pushed under the carpet.

Congrats again to JJ and I'll be looking forward to surely Vienna next year. I hope he can establish himself and follow up this Eurovision success better than Nemo has and at the very least he can’t bring a worse interval act. I'll be back for one or two more articles likely before heading back into hibernation so keep an eye out for those.