Eurovision 2025: Grand Final Preview
Well the big day is here. I shan't drag this intro on too long as this is a long enough read as it is and for the TLDR scroll to the graphics. In brief, I think it’s a middling year and there is A LOT of filler beyond a strong top 10 or so, increased by a few of the shock qualifiers. Staging and production is pretty excellent however and Hazel's mad chaotic energy has been a highlight.
Anyway, enough of that, let’s go through the running order for tonight…
1. Norway
One of those songs that just remains a bit of a favourite without particularly excelling, is it finally time that the large field and lack of originality catch up to this? Opening is a hard ask and whilst voting from the start may help, this is still in danger. The better known Marcus and Martinus with a comporable entry received 49 in the public vote last year. I don't think there's as much vote dilution this year, but that figure is a reasonable cap. I'm expecting around half that and something similar from the juries. In the running for last.
2. Luxembourg
Not much to say here, there was a run of optimism over this pre semi and pre draw but looks safy in that 13-20th range.
3. Estonia
Is third really the best place to put Tommy Cash to create "the best show possible" Christer? Or is it an attempt to ensure Sweden's victory and/or derail the next entry. Like Ukraine and Israel last year, I don't know if that will have any effect and this is still a danger for a 300+ score. Stats have been up there and this is dangerous to let fester so to speak with votes open from the start - plenty of time for Tommy's fandom to get involved.
Jurors maybe award a 50-80 I'd guess. Fairly happy this is pinned down in that 330-400pt range with its final placing depending more on what others receive, let's see if that holds true.
4. Israel
Is there much to say here? I've said all season the market and fandom is over spooked by last year's televote - the world moves on quick despite KAN's and protesters pushes. Throw in suboptimal staging and a distasteful political environment and this is a non threat. Like last year, the running order is more a message to jurors that this is not to be voted for, and enough broadcasters have shown that reluctance anyway.
The raw televote vote numbers are going to be way, way down on last year, but there is still uncertainty on how that correlates to points. I am expecting less than two thirds of last year's public vote haul and about the same on the jury.
5. Lithuania
Another one I'm fairly confident in calculating the points on, this looks to be getting the standard Lithuania outcome of midtable. Cool song, hard to find anything to back this for particularly.
6. Spain
The early maligned favourite for last, Spain have turned things around for the second year in a row and are another fan favourite with flashes of juror and casual support, bringing a much improved performance from benidorm fest. Still, this is on early and not entirely out of the woods for me.
7. Ukraine
This was a hipster's choice earlier in the season but is now generally the most condemned entry in the final,whose qualification was seen as flattering by many. They’re also generally the regarded the biggest loser from last night's jury show. Still, this is Ukraine, and we all know they are likely to do decent overall, top 10 not wrote off.
8. The UK
Hmm, there were more wtf entries for the UK to follow so I take it Christer isn't that impressed with Ziferblat either. The two entries are both incredibly incoherent and do blend into each other more than expected from a producer running order- perhaps an attempt to boost song number 9...
This entry has been broadly slated and another 0 points on the televote is possible or likely even according to my followers over on X, which is making them favourites for last. Televoters don't vote for harmonies. Will the jury? Our predictor jury also awarded this 0 points from 10+ fellow betting analysts but some other signs are OK. Best case seems to be like a very generous 50pts from them. I do think this might avoid the very bottom, but will be somewhere down that end.
9. Austria
We come to our first serious contender in Austria who had the misfortune of drawing a first half draw and unlike Estonia and Israel I think they are affected by it a fair amount. In the arena poll alone their vote has fallen far more than other semi two contenders. Can JJ wow enough to get immediate votes?, because waiting for the recap doesn't help him one bit.
The path to victory has always been a jury win and a televote good enough to finish the job (The Nemo route). I guess technically that's not essential as there might be more on the televote than the other Jury contenders but we are looking at needing a 300+ with our music experts. Possible and the precedent is good. It hits the metrics, ticks the boxes and fulfills the trends. There's not really a consensus it will achieve a jury landslide but there wasn't also for Switzerland last year and there is a snowball effect we've been seeing. Jury tastes are becoming homogenised and if he's their marginal favourite that could translate well. In terms of position, JJ is probably up there in the televote in the top 5/6 and I have him behind some "irrelevant" countries in the win discussion - realistically the goal is to be close enough to Sweden there and/or see of France. Very possible it’s Vienna next year.
10. Iceland
Bit of fluff in the running order here with our much happier rowers from Iceland. I think it works well for those just wanting a bit of fun but this is still going to have a hard time here in such a big field. Jury appeal restricted and depending on Nordic biases (bottom of a big pile there anyway I think) possibly their last place.
11. Latvia
Remains a painful three minutes for me but qualifying a good sign and I expect the girls to do fine overall with a fair amount of mid table consensus.
12. The Netherlands
Readers will know I've had longstanding issues and doubts over this as a winner and the draw increases those. C'est La Vie to me has always looked far more of a 200J, 100TV entry realistically than that 300,200 it would need to be. Does the draw (this could have gone second half) mean this was indeed 4th or lower in the televote in semi one and therefore not a realistic contender anyway and France was preferred? Maybe. But not entirely relevant, it's more likely this misses the televote top 10 than enters the top 5. Whilst it may have some jury winning potential, it does not have 300+ power and would do so with an irrelevant lead akin to Cesar Sampson and Tamara Todevska/John Lundvik - think Netherlands 267, Austria 261, France 258 or something. The televote will not be kind and running through each country this just struggles to pick up anything significant away from its neighbours. Overall, fighting for a 5th place or something in my view.
13. Finland
We Komme straight to another big talking point and Finland does technically have all the ingredients to win. Impressive staging, a strong star power led live performance, a bit of a new angle and also meeting trends of something different winning from a country that has been building momentum. There's televote appeal and theoretically jury respect for a well put together package. I've been less anti-Erika than many, but have also not been pro her either for a win or a place. The signs are not there, particularly with juries where this has not really caught the eye in any of the preview shows or other metrics such as predictor jury. The fan aspects liked this, but the outsiders involved less so, notably picking up 0 from a very large and professional Estonian sample.
Overall, I think they will respect the showmanship of Erika, but not to a 200~ point area like Maneskin or Baby Lasagna other untypical jury entries that were high enough to win.
On the televote, they have good momentum from semi two but find themselves climaxing with half the show to go now. =bad=. With the increased competition I wouldn't be surprised if this scores fewer with the public here than it did in its semi final despite far more sets of points available. Northern Europe core region likely awarding bigger points to Estonia, Sweden and their diasporas.
On paper lower jury potential and lower televote potential than favourite Sweden so is doomed on that alone and needs a particularly weird set of splits to make it into the top 4/5. I think the best case that can be made for this is that myself and the colder more “logical” analysts are simply wrong on this and the fandom turns out to be more representative of the casual reaction than us.
14. Italy
An off year, Italy are set for one of their lowest televotes ever and something that passed me by when the draw was revealed was how bad they have it. They are crushed between the two power female performances and beyond that there is the Netherlands and Germany who are moderately well regarded on the public vote further sandwiching Lucio. This is the weakest of that bunch and I think this just gets lost rather than benefiting from some of the contrasts. What effect Tomasso and Gabry Ponte have in taking Italophile votes is unknown but it's not a good one. Expecting a mid table jury score, if it does well there it’s not a huge shock, just not what I am currently predicting.
15. Poland
Often powerful on the metrics, I think we can say the diaspora is very happy with Justyna this year and will be out in force it seems. I think there's enough casual appeal to join that and they might be pushing a three figure televote. I don't expect jurors to be particularly kind.
16. Germany
Mixed feelings on the staging for this and Baller still feels a repetitive number. It’s also one that could still do well despite it’s flaws or maybe because of its rough around the edges charm. Not predicting a big televote anymore and instead a more moderate one. Likely punished hard by juries.
17. Greece
The last act announced to qualify to the final, Greece seems to have been received pretty well and might have done better than expected in the semi final. Or domestic hype is skewing things and they were 10th... Not the best draw possible, but considering the goal looks to have been prioritise France and Switzerland it's pretty solid. Revising upwards expectations having previously thought bottom 5 was likely. There are a lot worse and less reliable entries in this final plus the Cypriot and mini balkan wipeout except Albania helps. Running through the votes this should pick up very good points from it's allies (Balkans, Caucasus, Cyprus, Israel) but little from elsewhere. On the verge of a top 10.
18. Armenia
Following Greece is Parg and it's an (alleged) thematic one-two I thought they might do. We've seen Armenia post some pretty low televotes after qualifying and the diaspora can't hang in there like others can. Not enough of a usp despite the staging glow up which saw them through. (Drafted that before the audience poll where they were indeed at the bottom). Jury appeal should be minimal and this could be last with them. In the running for last overall.
19. Switzerland
Pre-drawn here, producers have been further kind in keeping Zoe's neighbouring spots uncompetetive. I actually don't personally rate this as a song, but I do expect jurors to and this should be somewhere in their top 5. I think towards the lower end but it's hard to say. Despite backing this a lot at the big odds, the televote is unlikely to go with this enough to threaten and the momentum doesn't look there one bit. Not a Salvador Sobral obviously, but this should be a safe top 10 overall. 4th-8th.
20. Malta
Momentum has abandoned Malta and no one is particularly enthralled with the staging. Probably looking around 20th now with any potential for more gone. Jurors have traditionally liked Malta but it's been a few years since that has been tested and this super trashy approach pushes that. Could be lost here despite the late draw.
21. Portugal
The first of our back to back shock qualifiers, this is a notable weak spot of the final and serves as filler. A 12pts from the Luxembourg televote joins whatever the diaspora are able to carry over from semi one. Jury appeal should be limited also but combined, enough to avoid last place discussions for me though it will be somewhere down there likely.
22. Denmark
I'd say this is bottom of the pile for Nordic votes despite the late draw. Jury appeal has been seen however and this doing quite well with them is possible. Not a prime contender for last either, but Denmark will be happy just to be in the final after breaking their NQ streak.
23. Sweden
The comparison for Sweden this year has been Francesco Gabbani: An act tipped to stroll to the televote and earn jury respect that eventually falls away. The difference is this is an alternative reality of Occientali's Karma. One in which we already have a fine three minute cut, one where the staging wasn't going to be botched, one in which the act hasn't run out of steam (pun intended). It's also one which has been lucky - and favoured upon as expected - with the draw. The biggest reason however this is a different year is because unlike 2017 no one else has emerged. Zoe Me doesn't have the momentum or narrative of a Salvador Sobral, JJ can't be expected to smash the televote like Kristian Kostov. And France, well, we'll come to next. Sweden will be in that Jury top 5 and floating somewhere around 200pts. More fan centric metrics even have them threatening there. The televote should be somewhere around 300pts and that is likely enough. Justified favourite.
24. France
Its no surprise at all to see France get a great draw and something that has been expected all season - so long as they avoided the bad luck of a first half. They have also took notes from last year where Slimane's simplicity was in the end a distant second behind Nemo's technical artistry. Hence the sand. This is the sort of staging jurors heavily award on a more frequent basis. France are shouting the loudest for the win and just the draw and fact organizer's are allowing an act that takes over 4 minutes to set up speaks to them being a desired outcome. The Sweden vs France h2h is in vogue today and was something called here a month back. The reason Ive cooled on that however was the stats coming into this, where Loanne wasn't shouting strong contender from anywhere, and despite the visual brilliance, I don't know if this sells it on a first viewing or whether the now promising signs are the traditional “bubble getting bored of the status quo”. Could push towards 300 pts on the jury but the issue remains the televote. Pravi and Slimane televotes could or even likely are enough to win but I’m apparently not the only one doubtful here. This doesn't necessarily correlate, but France are currently 6th/7th favourites for the televote victory and can be backed at a whopping 120-1+. Jury rivals (marginal favourites) Austria are see as three times more likely. My own televote prediction is also low. I wouldn't mind to be wrong, we'll come onto that, but I think 7s (the Nemo price this time a year ago…) is fair.
25. San Marino
Good bit of fun and refresher between two serious entries. I'll give Christer credit for that one as going straight into Albania would be intense. Should pick up points from San Remo viewing countries and Italy's typical supporters and less than 20 on the jury. I don’t think it’s last but the odds are generous.
26. Albania
I think there are a lot of good signs for this and it will go down well in the East and will be strongly backed up by Albania's diaspora. I also think this will do better on the jury than I first had it with the artistry and strength of composition coming through. Beatrice is also amazing and in a way takes the shine of Louanne in my opinion, maybe another reason for the Tutta L’ Italia buffer. I expect my points prediction to be on the high end but this has a genuine top 5 chance to level their best ever result.
Jury Voting
I think Austria ticks the more jury boxes than France still so is given a lead here. I don't think overly controversial but can see why others would swap the pair. Sweden's 222 may be on the higher end but comparing the criteria, past similar entries and that typical Sweden/favourite bias is reasonable imo. Estonia and Ukraine making the top 10 here is one I’m sure I’ll be called out on but again I’m throwing in leniance and generosity. I’ve also not gone for any outsider jury push, instead distributing pretty equally, and focused on the favourites.
Televote
One of my early predictions this year was that only Sweden and Estonia would pass the 200 pt barrier this year, with a bunch of entries floating lower and I maintain that just about. In fact, I have the pair a mile clear. Estonia remains a threat to win the televote and I think it's a far closer h2h with Sweden than the odds make it. Beyond them, I guess Israel can't be 100% dismissed this year and Austria or even Finland could surprise. France’s low 140 is probably the most controversial and surprising allocation. Feel free to lambast me over @escbetting on X. Whilst that may be off and an extreme low, I struggle to see it past 200.
Overall
I put in the numbers and Sweden always come out in first, although the 70~ margin looks generous, as does the overall score. It does however give them leeway which is why they are where they are in the odds. Austria and France come out as second and third as the big jury pushes but in simple terms, Sweden should be closer with the professionals than that pair are with the public. Estonia is the tip for 4th as I believe they'll still get a huge televote from 3rd which will out-do the more consensus focused Albania and Finland. Switzerland, The Netherlands and Israel look too restricted for higher whilst Ukraine's diaspora and kind neighbours narrowly pip them into tenth, ahead of the similar cases from Greece and Poland.
At the bottom it’s a wide open race for last place, if you believe the UK can at least do some business on the jury side. There’s a case for 9 songs really but Armenia and Iceland look the most likely, thanks to their expected jury performance.
My Position
Keeping with last place I’m covered on that pair (around 22 avg odds each) as well as San Marino (51), Malta (81), Norway (8), Italy (101) and Spain (12.5) who I am not letting off the hook just yet. Basically, UK please scrape some jury love.
Despite banging the Swedish drum all season, I'm actually a bit bigger on France from investing E/W quite heavily 13+ (mainly after release), Estonia and Switzerland are also entries I’d like to see place (or miraculously win). Austria are a good outcome but nothing amazing. As you can imagine if you’ve been following here, The Netherlands and Israel have been kept max red which on current prices has worked very well for me. I’ve also opposed in some of the submarkets. Finland I’ve not backed or opposed for anything really, just some win cover pre semi 2 with this surge expected.
Estonia has been backed in the televote market (10+) as I think they are far closer than the odds have it and I’ve thrown away some money on Sweden to win the jury (18avg) as a show of faith in @PredictorJury. There’s also some pennies on Switzerland (16avg) but I’ve avoided getting involved much here.
Estonia (1.6avg), and Albania (2 avg) have long been top 10 shouts and I’ve thrown in Greece (4.7 avg) in the last days, reversing my bottom 5 opinion on them. Germany are a now doubtful position (5.5 avg). I’ve also been opposing Italy for top 15 (laying around 1.45) and have backed them under 2.5 jury 12s at 1.5. That's often a fun market but I don’t have any other positions there yet.
I think that’s pretty much it beyond some h2hs and request type things that are in line with my maths and general predictions.
Personally, I do think the contest could use a popular winner, whether that is Sweden or anyone else. My prediction isn't based on that having started the whole #JuriesExist thing to dismiss Kaarijaa. Someone winning with a televote 5th or lower again and 0 twelves would surely force change. Contradicting that, I'm also not looking forward to another Swedish hosting if that is what we get. Anyway, that's best left for the post-mortem after we crown our winner. Good luck to all tonight and enjoy the show!