Eurovision 2025: Semi Final One Preview

Not a great amount has changed for me from the pre-rehearsals preview which is natural given we were feeding on a bit less this year kind of reducing the swings. Hopefully it is alsl a good omen for my predictive skills in this semi.

There’ll be a tonne of Eurovision content out for you all today so I’ll try and keep this on the shorter end and just fly through the running order one last time…

Iceland starts the party well but is soon forgotten I fear, hurt by the televote magnets still to come. Value in opposing.

Poland straight after them also hurt in immediately memory holing Vaeb and theirw expertise in over the top staging has found a fitting home this year with ‘Gaja’. Ukraine will start the ball roling with a 12 setting them well towards qualification.

Slovenia have took a leap forward in many people’s books but I have had pretty decent expectations for this anyway and Klemen is more meeting that “borderline in” level I have had him at all along.

Estonia is similar. Before last night I was actually a bit disappointed there wasn't something more beefed up like a giant prop but the expanded Eesti Laul performance just does bring a smile. Irreverent done well and top 3 in an arena poll when the fandom hates his guts is a good omen.

Ukraine have a rare miss at the live performance this year (to go with the rare weak song) and from any other country or at another time this would be in real danger of going home 1.03 says enough of the diaspora is engaged.

Sweden have managed the transition from Melfest well but there’s not a lot to add here, semi winner unless anything strange (primarily Estonia) happens.

Portugal is one where my opinion has shifted a little, back down from what was a bit of a high in my last preview. To be blunt, this does just look and feel particularly weak especially after Sweden and hasn’t improved at all from FdC. Moves way further back in the race to Q again.

Norway are basically on national final form and Kyle has dealt well with a tooth operation last week. Still feels a bit short to qualify as might struggle to translate general appreciation into “that is the one I’m voting for”, particularly with a sub-optimal draw and less points in the bank.

Belgium still has some off vibes for me and who is backing this to win remains a mystery- particularly with the discrepancy to many of the side markets. Still, this should be through now.

Azerbaijan are one I always felt would struggle despite being a bit of a favourite of mine but the live performance also doesn’t really do the song justice. Looks gone, particularly with that arena poll and another harsh televote score is incoming.

San Marino were also one I warned about showing up and having a bad staging and that has kind of happened- they’ve took the wrong route but have done an OK job at that, more to the point, others have slipped up too or more. Relying also on that pre-exposure Tutta L’Italia has had in a few of the countries voting here. Very promising arena poll giving a good buffer.

Albania could have done more for me to really justify the increased hype and it’s hard to say if they can make an initial impression on casuals to the level that this has grown/maintained itself as a fan favourite. That said, not the best showing from them in the audience poll. I do think this is a top 3 however here and the added diaspora boost they generally receive helps them achieve that.

Netherlands have gone up and down and around and around for a lot of pundits but my far cooler view of this coming in hasn’t altered much in the semi (or final) context.

Croatia have deployed similarly excellent staging as last year which might just keep this in the reckoning- I’m not expecting it to Q but it has stepped up for me and may be a value proposition.

Cyprus close the show and are finally out of teases for us I think to keep the hype alive. Concerning arena poll and vocal last night. Still pretty safe for me but not certain based on all the evidence.

Full Prediction

My Position

Sweden is obviously the correct favourite and something you all know I am keen on but as often with a short priced semi winner I don’t reccomend tying up any stakes with much better action elsewhere. Estonia in particular and Albania maybe offer some value longshots even, more due to the rest of the field being completly written off here.

For the Top 3 I’ve been backing both Estonia and Albania and also laying an additional bit at the Netherlands. I don’t know if it will actually be as dominant a trio as my maths has given me but I don’t see anyone else breaking into it.

Slovenia is something I’ve been backing for much of the season and will be the main one I’ll be cheering for. I have some small action on Croatia at 9+ which I expect to lose but will stick with. I have a similar situation with some lays on Norway. There might be marginal value in taking on the Ukraine at 1.03 but an upset on that scale would be unprecedented pretty much. Iceland is the main country I’ve been opposing with their chances severely overestimated in my book- though if they make it I do have a position on them for last place too - something they would look very strong for… San Marino are avoided here - a borderline I can't call with enough confidence, though I guess out.

Post Semi Expectations

I’m expecting Sweden to smash the statistics, followed by Estonia and it will be a bad omen for their respective ambitions if that is not the case, and positive for anyone who can hang in there (Albania? Netherlands? Belgium?). Tommy in particular still has a very wide range on the televote which we may be able to pin down a bit more.

From the automatics Switzerland have made that leap up the odds some predicted -please ignore Ukraine :)- and have given themselves a good draw to try and get some traction - the reaction to them may tell us if there is any hope of something beyond a Jury push into 4th or 5th. Since we've not touched much deeper on them here, I personally don’t rate the song much at all but in live there is one of the few goosebumps moments of the year. Spain and Italy are unlikely I’d say to get more than a domestic boost and feel the weakest of the automatics not worth dwelling much on for now.

Enjoy the show and good luck with any action! I’ll be over on X as usual @escbetting posting any thoughts and waiting for a chance to deploy that meme.