Eurovision 2025: Semi Final Two Preview

Well, myself and pretty much everyone else trying to predict these things have a reputation to restore after a few surprises in semi one - at least in terms of qualifiers that we know. Unfortunately, we have a even more mixed bag on paper here with the consensus lower and rehearsals have further muddied things. Let’s dive in…

Our show tonight starts with a bang from Australia who are back on form. Go-Jo managed to make top 3 in the arena poll which is a very good sign for him and this is a certain qualifier. Whether he can also climb that high in the actual vote however is uncertain but 8s+ is value.

Montenegro are up second and this just doesn't look to be going anywhere still.

Ireland are really up and down in my estimations but we finally have the full thing to judge. It's not great, but seems to have gone down well enough with the fan poll, something that Iceland also excelled at.

Latvia is staged very well visually and artistically but could still NQ regardless. Really not sure with this one either, feels borderline but if people just don't get it that's understandable.

Armenia I will give a lot of credit to with Parg really selling this entry well. I'm writing these brief previews on the fly before doing my maths but he is surely far closer to qualifying now for me and I'm not so bullish against this.

Second favourites Austria have the question to answer over how appealing this is to the televote. It's a show, but is it a vote generating one? Anyway, there's no doubt at all that this will be top 4/5 here at minimum and that's more a debate to be had in the final and for their winning chances there. I don't rule this off from the semi win because realistically it only needs the Israeli vote to not show up and a different fan fav (Finland) to underwhelm. Provisionally, I think this is correctly priced as 3rd in the semi.

Greece deliver one of the better vocals and the staging is good. I don't think this is guaranteed to be through, but there are a bunch of countries that will be pretty keen on this I feel.

Lithuania are an obvious qualifier with many guaranteed points and are a unique proposition in the semi final. Outside chance of top 3.

Malta has had a bad time in the odds the last days and I think that knowing wink and irony this had over Finland has been lost. This has instead become a trashier version of that and now loses the charisma battle. Prevent a qualification? No. But, I don't expect much more than that now.

Georgia qualifying would be a bigger surprise than Portugal given their general record and overall perceptions of this. It's not a bad staging but it's a weird one, matching the song I guess.

Denmark haven't really improved the staging much from DMGP and this feels like it just doesn't have enough of a Usp.

There follows a lot of dancing at this point in the form of Czechia and they have been a big victim of the rehearsals. Moving from 30s (don't get me started on that) to 200+. Belgium's NQ the other night prompted a re-assement on the appetite for this from me and the arena poll last night was bad reading for fans of this.

There's no sudden revelation with Luxembourg - it's a good staging and there is enough going for this to pick up consistent 3-5 points which should see them qualify.

Israel miss the mark for me with their staging and are favourites here for other reasons. There's going to be some pro Israel vote from the engaged but what else is hard to say. Opposable at odds on I feel.

Serbia have decided to fight the losing battle of trying to make this appeal to the fandom at the risk of their base vote. Very borderline.

Finland is a firm fan favourite as seen by their 20% in the arena poll and the huge victory of the press poll (read fandom again) despite being pretty close to the national final performance, which doesn't usually help excitement. I've been less vocal against Erika than many others in the betting community and I do think this is the standout of the semi final, helped hugely by the draw. I don't think the same success will be seen in the final - but there's a good chance to grab momentum here and I'm keen on it here.

Full Prediction

My Position

I’ve been taking on Israel a little with the belief that the moment has passed enough so to say. Obviously there’s some volatility in this but I’m fine to risk a bit here. Finland are tipped to take the top spot but Austria can’t be dismissed either.

In the Q battle I’ve turned against Czechia in the last days and they are my main play beyond some of the safer things (Lithuania, Australia Q, Denmark NQ).

I don’t have much interest in trying to figure out who is in between Ireland, Latvia, Serbia and Armenia and have backed out of a few positions on these. Emmy is however one of my last place portfolio headliners so her making it would be good in that regard.

Post Semi Expectations

Finland, Australia and Austria will probably lead the views and stats but what exactly will happen I’m not sure. Israel will also likely be high given the push they are making but that should have the least impact on any odds.

Germany is the main big 5 to watch for the reaction for. France isn't expected to gain much traction despite their status and The UK can be ignored on the whole.