2026 Odds Review #6: 15/02
We have three new songs from last night all confirmed for Vienna with two long time tipped ones and a bit of an upset as the third. Estonia have gone for Vanilla Ninja in a very tight superfinal between NOEP and OLLIE and despite the predictability, it’s not a choice that’s gone down well in the fandom, or in the odds with Estonia 200+ pretty much.
Neighbours Latvia are floating around 75 with Atvara who won through in Supernova and they made probably the best choice there.
Our mini upset of the evening came in Denmark where Soren Topergaard Lund made a late surge to usurp Sissal and Ericka-Jane. I wasn’t convinced the Televote there would swing enough for him with the two girls dominating the build up but it’s hard to say it wasn’t a deserved win and one that has been received pretty universally well. Not to be the immediate party popper, but 20s to win was a silly low Denmark reached in the aftermath last night but there's plenty of money queued up which should keep them in ‘lively outsider’ range.
Greece and Croatia are set to select later tonight and both have pretty secure favourites in Akylas and Lelek who we have already seen perform in the semi finals throughout the week. Logically we shouldn't see any sizeable odds moves from what is captured as around 12s and 130s respectively unless Greece throw up an upset, in which case expect a big drift to 30+ minimum and a run on Finland which has established itself as favourite this week sat under 6s currently. This is not a statement of my opinion on any of the value or accuracy of these prices and right now I am scratching my head at the disparity between comparatively equal entries’ odds.
In other goings-on we got a charismatic first live of Cyprus’ entry performed in Sing For Greece (Have to make sure of those 12pts) and Antigoni is predictably doing well in a lot of the polling.
Italy have had a very good week in the market just sitting back and chilling whilst seeing a drop in odds from 19~ to 12~, a big shift proportionally without them really doing much. As a whole, the market is still waiting for “the one” and has moved on them as the likeliest supplier of it.
Romania have been supplying plenty of chaos already with their return, sudden national final decision with short submission deadline and countless longlists, medium lists and short lists throughout the last week or so as well as auditions of some sort and an easy to rig wild card round. Despite all that, they have unearthed a very well rated song in ‘Choke Me’ - not a typo which is the fans’ current fancy, time will tell if it will catch on further…
I don’t think there's been any other real developments or rumours in the last week but it would be remiss not to mention the embarrassing cancellation of Eurovision On Tour. An unnecessary own goal but not hugely consequential beyond shelving any similar plans for the foreseeable probably.
Next week at the very specific 18:21 on Thursday we have an artist and song reveal from Belgium who have been quietly drifting from their opening odds with allegedly some issues finding an act, if you follow the rumour mill which has surprisingly not pinned down exactly who we are getting just yet.
Hosts Austria bring us a Friday night final and we then have a pretty uneventful weekend on the horizon. I know broadcasters don't collaborate on timings but for not a single one to have landed on next Saturday as a National final night sandwiched between two huge Super Saturdays is a bit odd. Watching Smash Into Pieces stroll through Sweden's Melfest Heat 4 with a repeat of their previous two entries just like Medina last night will have to suffice.
