Israel 2026: Noam Bettan with 'Michelle'

After a vote and de-facto referendum and vote between the broadcasters on participation earlier in the season, Israel were confirmed as being present in Vienna and later Noam Bettan won their selection process. 

As a song 'Michelle' is quite good and it's grown on me since the selection. It is a bit overwrought in the vocal delivery which doesn't seem really warranted. It really is a performance in studio that screams "I can sing, let me show off" and this will probably be even more obvious live. The tri-lingual approach is a similar surface level flourish. Through this I don't find Noam particularly engaging and whilst the song is fine and what I prefer more out of the pairing it's not a showstopper. In short, good song they're throwing lots of tricks at to try and make it seem great. 2016-2022 it's fighting for a top 10.

Of course, it's 2026 so the assumptions and predictions are slightly different. I won't delve deep into my thoughts or rationale but I'd imagine a lower Televote than the past two years given natural enthusiasm decay, the rule changes limiting votes, a closer eye on the voting process and promotion, the fact this isn't overtly created to have any non-song narrative and the switcheroo of 5 more western nations out for three Balkans. Non of these are however guarantees to have had any impact and there's a wide range and high ceiling on the televote. Dropping below 150 seems unlikely given the resilience last year, top end double that if the changes have had zero impact. The jury vote seems predictable at being somewhere between 50-100 when combining sympathetic, dismissive and 'fair' jurors.

Israel are on the most part quite reliable with staging but can also overcook things here and we'll obviously have to wait until May to see this in anything close to a competitive live environment.

Overall 20-25 to win looks bang on as a win chance and is as much a bet on the spread or maths of other countries but possibly offers value E/W depending on sportsbook’s pricing and terms.

Personal Rating: 13/20

Televote Potential: 18/20

Jury Potential: 12/20

Staging Potential: 13/20

Track Record: 19/20

Overall Rating: 75/100

Early Prediction: Semi One 1st-4th, 4th-7th In The Final.

Volatility Factor - 3/5 Televote high floor we expect but still possibly a wide range in there, Jury unlikely to deviate much.