Moldova 2026: Satoshi with ‘Viva Moldova’
Satoshi has unsurprisingly stormed to victory over in Chisinau in one of the biggest landslides ever seen.
This is a really fun song from Moldova and right in their wheelhouse, a sentiment captured beautifully by the whole "Moldova is on duty" line. In the context of their return after an absence with a big unashamed crowd pleaser that's an early contender for lyric of the year.
"Salutti a Tutti" is another fun one and a nice follow up to last year's 'Espresso Macchiatto' and the endearing playful use of Italian. The rest of the multilingual lines and nods do the job in inviting everyone to enjoy this but don't reach the same heights.
This is primarily a big patriotic anthem and that's doubly useful at a time when Moldova is in the news more than usual with Romanian unification, EU ascension and their relationship with Russia all on the agenda. Not at the forefront for support, but just something to keep an eye on if the story develops or it gets picked up on.
Now, being critical this isn't the most refined composition and in a way the addition of Aliona Moon does feel shoehorned in and an afterthought, although live it worked better than in studio in this regard and helps to keep things from getting too repetitive.
Juries are the bigger challenge here too with this being a party song which both won't and also shouldn't show up with the slickness or "professionalism" that traditionally gets their nods. Whether the absolute landslide from the juries (and the Moldovan public) is a reflection of things to come or more the standard of opposition and a reading of the room is a key question. To bring up 'Espresso Macchiato' again, Tommy Cash ran to a similar enough result at Eesti Laul which was precedent for it going on to perform respectably with the Eurovision juries.
What's more Moldova are very good at staging fun, upbeat entries no matter what the budget is. Satoshi's popularity, EBU discounts on the participation fee, the effort gone into their national final and maybe savings made from not going last year might mean they have one of their biggest ever budgets. There's plenty of room for a glow up from the national final and the blueprint as much as their previous work could be Baby Lasagna's in transforming 'Rim Tim Tagi Dim' into a credible Party/Rock entry whilst keeping the fun and the energy.
Predictions then and Moldova don't have the best draw in the semi final and the return of the juries is a bit of a blow for what could have been a real Tuesday night title challenge but qualification is not in doubt. We'll wait and see what else comes up but I'm thinking outside shot there.
This will be a popular one with televoters but how far is difficult to say: this could be from 150- 250 in the final and Moldova's two big successes in the last decade (2017 and 2022) were not predicted at this stage. Initial guesses is between 60-120 on the jury unless we get something truly showstopping and a real narrative. That gives them a shot at the podium if everything falls well but more likely they'll end a bit lower but still top 10.
Current odds of around a 2.5% win chance look about right in having this in longshot territory, but out of our 2 national finals tonight (MESC ongoing as I'm finishing this up) I'm stunned this is priced the longer. Given the scale of victory in its national final, this is one not to dismiss entirely so early and I'll be keeping an eye on it's progression to Vienna.
Personal Rating: 18/20
Staging Potential: 18/20
Televote Potential: 18/20
Jury Potential: 12/20
Track Record: 16/20
Overall Rating: 82/100
Early Prediction: Semi Final One 3rd-5th, 5th-8th in the Final.
Prediction Volatility: 3.5/5 - Televote hard to nail down leading to a lot of variance in position, but there is a solid floor this won't fall below and juries are a bit easier to cap.