Montenegro 2026: Tamara Zivkovic with ‘Nova Zora’
It's the first Selection Saturday of the calender year- I don't know if MESC and Selectia Nationala earn the “super” tag so I'm catching up on one we already have in the bank courtesy of Montenegro and Tamara Zivkovic.
By virtue of coming from the unfancied pre-song Montenegro and having selected early, this is the country that currently occupies last place in the odds, and given how these things usually go, is pretty likely to stay there for the rest of the season. Embarrassingly, the boycotting Slovenia and Ireland are currently wanted at and offered at shorter odds at the time of writing.
Whilst this has no chance at winning, the outright odds of course aren't a 1:1 rating of quality or qualification chances as this is quite a good song from Montenegro, from a decent National Final lineup, by Montenegrin standards. I've not seen or sought out much discussion on this but what I have seen is pretty positive. I don't think that is wrong exactly, but trying to look ahead this might look a lot more dubious once we have the full field…
There's a lot of refining to do but there is some potential here. A complete concept and styling overhaul is pretty likely and hopefully ORF - our Austrian host broadcaster - can lend a hand in improving the production values and where early selection has been a big help. The priority is making better use of the dance breaks through slicker, tighter choreography but the structure of this song allows for it to feel a bit different from the many "awkward dance break shoved in the bridge girl bops" (or guy ballads - you know who I'm looking at) of recent years. This is a song that can keep viewers casually engaged throughout I feel, but the call to action is weak, making it important this doesn't face much or any direct competition in the semi final where qualifying is of course the big goal.
On that front, draw for Montenegro has been kind in terms of historical voting patterns (mainly through Serbia being here) and of course a second half draw, however semi final 1 also contains a lot of countries with very strong qualification records. Even with a generous score from their neighbours, there's already the likelihood this is fighting for one of the last spots to make it through, which is where the whole trying to foresee what the competition will be comes in.
Juries are of course a semi final consideration once again and I feel that hampers this somewhat: even with a professional staging this may be a bit too regional sounding and treated as disposable. Expect to see this score better with the Televote.
Should this make the final it wouldn't look out of place at all and would be welcome there from me but would not escape the bottom 5.
Personal Rating: 15/20
Staging Potential: 12/20
Televote Potential: 8/20
Jury Potential: 5/20
Track Record: 2/20
Overall Rating: 42/100
Early Prediction: Semi Final 1 9th-13th, 20th-25th if in the final.
Volatility Factor: 2/5 - This should be a relatively static prediction with little on the horizon to dramatically affect the outcome.