14th/15th February National Finals Previewed
The first bumper selection weekend of the year is here with a huge 5 new entries incoming from Estonia, Denmark, Latvia, Croatia and Greece whilst proceedings also rumble on in Sweden and Lithuania. Here's my sometimes brief sometimes not-so predictions on everything in store for the sake of completionism - except Eurovizija.LT - I have to draw the line somewhere.
Melodifestivalen Heat 3
This has been a long awaited heat in betting circles with "bookies favourites" Korslagda performing. Not because of high hopes for them, but in case the inflated outright price was blindly copied for this heat. It was, and so some stakes are on the trio of Medina, Patrick Jean and Saga Ludvigson to beat them in the H2H. Some small stakes on last place at 20+ aim to kick them whilst they are (hopefully) down. I don’t expect that to happen but I don’t think they will be miles away from that despite a fine arena poll and I do believe they will be in the bottom 3 rather than top 3 of the Semi.
Patrick Jean has proved a huge letdown from initial reviews to snippet to reharsals and now a disaster of an outcome in last night’s family show. Should have remembered my own words in the blind preview on him…
Medina will win the semi and I assume Saga will qualify in second with the age groups likely helping her a lot, if she needed it. If there’s one bet from anywhere this weekend it’s backing her top 2 and/or to beat Korslagda.
After that it’s a bit difficult for third as we return to total votes. That might give Jean a bit of a sniff assuming he hits the more active demographics the hardest but I’ll go with Eva Jumatate for a mini melfest breakout performance. Realistically, most things point to Emilia Pantic probably being last unless she’s able to find 10s and 12s from the elderly like Laila last week.
Medina
Saga Ludvigsson
Eva Jumatate
Patrick Jean
Korslagda
Emilia Pantic
Eesti Laul
Bluntly, Estonia are in the most trouble of any country selecting this weekend, and for my money who have selected so far should they do what is expected in the odds and choose Vanilla Ninja to go to Eurovision. VN are carried by name recognition and a sentiment of righting some past Eesti Laul wrongs and an appeal to a demographic much harder to find Europe wide. It may be down to juries to prevent this from making the Televote only three way superfinal. OLLIE is here again with another identical effort and trying to be objective, does feel like he has the best entry this time around.
Past representatives Stig Rasta and Victor Crone have joined forces to become the cringetasticaly titled 'Stockholm Cowboys' and 2011's Getter Jaani makes a good return with 'The Game'.
Clicherik and Max with 'Jolly Roger' are the youthful option and more natural successor to 5miinust/Puuluup and Tommy Cash. They have had some good traction but nothing of the sort of that pair and I’m cautious of the live being not very good.
Noep is hanging in there under single figures in the odds and I honestly think two thirds of the field have some sort of chance at making it into the superfinal, particularly with us not having had semifinals this year to clarify things. In fact the first dress rehearsal reports are only coming now at the time of publishing this. I could wait, but I’ve spent a week on and off adding to this article and am quite frankly done with it… I’ll take my chances and for any updated thoughts find me on X.
I'm going with a top 3 of Vanilla Ninja, Ollie and Getter Jaani who might all have the best likelihood of a good performance and jury/TV balance. In the unlikely event I've landed on this as the correct top 3, I anticipate Getter would then be jettisoned by older voters for Vanilla Ninja and younger voters for Ollie leaving a bridesmaids showdown very tight to call, but probably advantage VN. I'll include some televote percentages for fun.
Prediction
1st: Vanilla Ninja 44%
2nd: Ollie 39%
3rd: Getter 17%
Dansk Melodi Grand Prix
An interesting selection this year mainly due to the rare example of an artist attempting an immediate return. Sissal has been very busy on Danish TV since breaking their non-qualification streak and returns with a fairly similar effort in 'Infinity' seeing her established as the odds-on favourite. Ericka-Jane is doing a good job at running her close or surpassing her in some of the polls and metrics with 'Death of Me', a catchy little pop song with unusually lame English lyrics more expected from Moldova than the typically proficient Denmark. From what I've seen, she's pretty similar to Sissal in personality too and would prove a chaotic, entertaining presence on the circuit. She's also been given the pimp slot by DR and a big staging is likely. This pair look certainties to make the superfinal, leaving one spot for the others.
Myrkur is my personal pick from the bunch with her snappily titled entry "Touch My Love and Die". Hmm, reminds me of my ex-girlfriend actually but I digress... this would be an unexpectedly bold choice from Denmark and whilst Myrkur has the credibility and performance calibre to rival or exceed the others, a challenge looks unlikely. Instead Denmark are more liable to go the other way and pick the safest, most boring guy which this year is Lasse. One to watch from the lineup which was mostly known before the reveal, but the release of his song made me lose a lot of optimism. Took some 17s-26s on this early on as a value play, his hope will be to sneak through into the superfinal with Ericka Jane and Sissal and hope for a vote split - The old 'Lighthouse X route'.
Soren Topergaard is a capable spoiler too and should threaten the top 3 also, who has been getting some of the best insider reactions to his rehearsal whilst Sander Sanchez and Emil Otto are both decent but unlikely to threaten having picked up very little traction. Late Runner seems the obvious last place - I can't feel it and no one else can either.
I have took some 10s on Soren outright, but my gut still says we get the two predictable girls and Lasse as the one joining the superfinal.
Unlike Eesti Laul, the jury still play a part here and should end Lasse's hopes despite the vote splitting possibility. Ericka has some real momentum these last days and may well be the preferred pick from DR. She's in my portfolio for this around 4s so I'm basically against Sissal, just as a value play, she has a good chance of course.
Prediction:
1. Ericka Jane
2. Sissal
3. Lasse
Supernova
I'll be honest, I've not paid much attention to Latvia this year due to them having (before the semifinals) an odds on favourite that I don't rate and that would be an irrelevance in the only market up this early: the win market. Emilja is however no longer the favourite and always appeared a very vulnerable one. The main alternative Atvara has leapfrogged her whose 'Ena' has been better received and talked up amongst the fans. It is the better entry and what I think will win. Kautkali are an outsider in with a chance but the fun 'Raving At The Taj Mahal' by Robert Ox is probably hopeless whilst a draw of 2nd has likely killed any upset hopes of Elpo.
Prediction:
1. Atvara
2. Emilija
3. Kautkali
Dora
I've dedicated slightly more time to Croatia this year without catching the semifinals live. HRT who despite some sound issues have continued to step up the visual game with Lelek in particular looking impressive and they surely came first on the Thursday. Last night the build up seemed to be mainly a Devin vs Zevin matchup where it's fair to say there was a convincing outcome between that pair with the latter crashing out entirely. If Croatia are using the same jurors who gave Marko Bosnjak a sizeable lead last year Devin’s odds could be good. Lara Demarin, Noelle and Lana Mandaric offer some more easily accessible options but which don’t seem to be picking up much traction. Cold Snap and Lima Len are unlikely to do a lot with the juries so something more consensus alligned such as Ananda and Stela Rade are probably fighting for position behind Lelek, who I expect to win pretty comfortably, especially with Croatia’s system rewarding big televote percentages which could be incoming here.
Prediction
Lelek
Devin
Ananda
Lima Len
Stela Rade
Sing For Greece
Greece's National Final format might be 50/50 juries/TV on paper but in practice I feel it's more weighted to the Televote, not only due to deciding any tie but also because it's not split in two like the juries are. Essentially, bombing with the international juries or excelling only with the domestic ones may not make a huge difference.
Obviously the main winner from this is Akylas who has dominated most televote metrics and therefore looks to be sitting on effectively 24 points and an effective 4.5 point gap over anyone else. Basically, for Akylas to lose, whoever is second in the Televote (failure to make the top 2 is effectively game over) needs a pretty nice jury swing over Akylas. From performances and staging, Good Job Nicky who I previously rated and felt was the likeliest candidate for that looks out of the discussion now and instead ZAF, Evangelia and Marseaux are all possibly close enough and all have good enough performances and fan bases to score consistently. My guess is that Akylas drops some points to the international jury who might prefer the two girls but should sweep up domestically. Not a 100% done deal but I can't pinpoint who surpasses him or how. ZAF feels closer than 80-1 if he can get the heartthrob and modern Greek ballad enjoyers both to overlap.
Prediction
1. Akylas 44
2. ZAF 37
3. Evangelia 36
4. Marseaux 34
5. GJN 27
6. Mikay 19
7. D3lta 12
8. Koza Mostra 11
9. Rosanna Mailan 11
10. Stefi 5
11. Leroy 3
12. Stylianos 2
13. Alexandra Sieti 1
14. Marika 0