A Quick Sanremo Favourites Preview
I was going to just leave this on X but as the weeks have gone on I think there's enough to say and try to piece together, but the TLDR for anyone wanting the betting tip, just take the value, I don’t see much between the top 6 in the odds.
Serena Brancale has a respectable chance but feels really short in given her profile, the fact her entry wasn't received incredibly well in the initial previews (Not strong favourite territory) and the usual female track record. I'm expecting something big and emotional and her to come out of the gates strong: Certain top 5 tonight and possibly more talking her up.Overall there's a danger in going for something tugging on the heart strings without being musically too interesting that you can peak too early (see Cristtichi last year).
Tommaso Paradiso hasn't been talked up much but everyone acknowledges he'll be somewhere up there and would be something of a consensus or dare I say boring pick. If everything else fails to hit hard, if ratings are low and skew old, if voters don't take to the new(ish) opposition, if something unchallenging is what Italy are in the mood for. More likely to be somewhere lower in the top 5 than win but through numbers that applies to all in a way. Fittingly, I have no strong opinion on this or his chances so far.
Fedez is one of the more typical San Remo favourites who would be talked up in most years and was a pick after his song here. That he came only 4th when it felt like there was a relatively clear path ahead is to me a bit of a concern. Came closest to winning back in 2021 of course with Francesca Michielin and has brought Masini with him to compete this year. Duets by their nature bring some interest to proceedings but I don't know exactly if this is a dream combo to get over the line or was better kept as a cover night curio from last year. Reaction from rehearsals is more a resigned fear of the win and the pair will probably have the most ground to make up with the juries. Yes the scoring system makes them relatively ineffective, but it's still something to consider. If not leading in the numbers by Saturday unlikely to win.
Sayf is the real 'something new' option for the year if Conti is going for a 'The Next Mahmood' sort of breakout. I don't have a huge amount of insight here but similar to Paradiso there's no narrative focus on him yet, but a bit more potential for that story to break out and interest to grow over the week. Ideally will be in the top 5 to frame him as a contender and talking point.
Ermal Meta has looked consistently dangerous on paper with his past at the contest (and Dardust's) and his song's subject matter. Yet to set the ground truly alight and I'm not as bullish on his chances as I might have been at the start of the year. Remains value at 7/8+ but another in need of a narrative landing or this could fizzle out.
A bit of a jump in the odds to Ditonellapiaga available at 10+ and this ticks plenty of boxes: Best pre rehearsal reviews, press room hype, maybe the most airplay and Spotify potential. Ditonellapiaga is also expected to do well in a lot of the sub-categories and covers night and fly out of the gate tonight performing first from the favourites and sure to be in the end of evening top 5. There are of course similar issues to Serena Brancale here in a lower profile female attempting to make a run and the other side if the coin in this maybe being 'too sassy' or 'not serious enough' for Sanremo victory consideration. The judgement call here is there's more credibility to her challenge than the likes of La Rappresentate Di Lista who I've opposed the hype to in past years but one has to acknowledge the possibility. Would be more of a surprise than Angelina Mango was but technically has a lot of the same potential but with less room for scoreboard assistance: the Televote has to come on board in mass.
After that I don't really consider Arisa a threat at all who is next in the odds and see her as the 'shock' non top 10 act, which if I had to round it out will feature Fulminacci, Tredici Pietro and Sal Da Vinci. Not beyond the realms of possibility one of those makes it into the top 5 but I'd go for something like this, in order of the green I have on them:
Ditonellapiaga
Ermal Meta
Tommaso Paradiso
Fedez e Massini
Serena Brancale
The one thing I do want to reiterate is the main tool producers have and one of the big levers that can be pulled is the nightly split. Nights 2 and 3 will play a part in the overall ranking where % of the vote gathered matters. Angelina Mango and Olly were both placed in a far weaker Thursday night in the last two years allowing them to stand out and gather some cheap points. Last year proved close and allowing Olly the chance to rack up some easy points whilst the other favourites slogged it out made all the difference.
It may prove impossible or not desired to do something similar again but, if we do, it's advantage to the favourite placed away from the others.