Eurovision 2026: The Blind(ish) Preview

With some final line-up certainty, unless any National Final winning artist is able to retroactively force a late-withdrawal (RTP - get contingency planning now), we can finally begin the more fun kind of speculation: not who will be there but how good will they be…

Ukraine have been a regular starting pick by me recently and this year's producer/showrunner/whatever and 2016 Eurovision winner Jamala seems unable to decide if this is the weakest vidbir she's had the misfortune to be involved in (and she's been involved in A LOT) or contains a potential Eurovision winner. We will be the judge of that on realese but for now the strongest signs are perhaps over Lelek despite the more familiar names of Jerry Heil (2024) and Monokate (2021, as lead of Go-A) or even last year's runner ups Khayat. This looks a strong selection and Ukraine's base points are a solid 150 on the televote based on everything we've seen this past four years. They start as the likeliest in the escbetting book and if we ever do get an “end” to the conflict that could make for a change of pace to the narrative.

Sweden are the actual favourites in the odds and this one looks a bit iffy to me, with a few notable exceptions (Frans, Cornelia Jakobsen, KAJ) all of which fell short eventually, the melodifestivalen winner and Sweden's subsequent hope in the competition tends to be  a bit more telegraphed and looking at the favourites, I'm not sure I see a Eurovision winner in there but I'll save my full thoughts for the Blind MF Preview. Still, The Netherlands are missing and two recent jury favourite countries (Switzerland and Austria) are both coming off wins so theoretically have a very good chance once again on that side.

Italy have a lacklustre San Remo field on paper but are usually there or thereabouts too. I don't think the 15s is a bad price exactly but can't pinpoint who seems likely to come through that and Eurovision too. My gut is we'll see someone from further down the pack get a big push but I need to research the lineup more.

Israel remain difficult to predict with us moving into another phase of them in the contest. Will all the anti-Israelis actually boycott (again?) rather than voting for alternatives? Is the pro-Israel lobby still engaged now the Middle East has slipped off the agenda? Are certain groups going to try as thoroughly to generate votes for whatever they send? How much are juries going to vote -or not- on non performance aspects? Are they actually going to send "The Next Espresso Machiatto" rather than a peace ballad? I don't really see how they beat their recent points range to be honest even at their best putting them around 3rd-7th probably. We'll see how static that guess remains through the season.

After those 4 it becomes much more subjective. But I'd rank the following three as having a very good chance.

Greece are a form country again and on paper one of those to have benefited the most from the returning Balkans. Their national final sees a few of their regular esc linked names leading the early discussion including last year's runner up Evangelia. We'll get more news on these in January.

Finland are never dull and pound for pound UMK might be the strongest selection show - they've been teasing their names but I won't pretend I've been following that too closely. Something good is the minimum expectation now.

France have been a little quiet so far but have been trying the hardest of all arguably to get the win in the last few years which often comes good eventually. Louanne's result ended up being a bit disappointing but a high calibre artist should be expected again.

After those I think it’s pretty difficult to seperate the pack and weighing up Norway vs Armenia vs The UK vs Bulgaria vs Poland isn’t an interesting read. Instead let’s look at some of the countries we have a bit more to work on with…

We’ve heard everything on offer from several additional countries so we’ll have a run through them too. ‘Voila’ (France 2021) inspired numbers, or blatant unashamed copies from what I’ve seen of this year’s junior winner, seem to be in vogue and that is the best on offer in Luxembourg with Daryss. Not my strongest type of song to predict but they could do quite well with that… Montesong is improved this year and has some solid qualification standard entries for Montenegro whilst Estonia can probably aim a little bit higher than that with a good Eesti Laul selection featuring several previous winners and runner ups. ‘Jolly Roger’ is however the song getting the early traction and fits the recent Estonia selection trend. Latvia’s Supernova remain uninspected here though Emilijia is a strong favourite according to the odds for the latter. I believe we’ve had names in Serbia and Croatia for their national final and Malta have also released theirs with cringelord Matt Blxkxksx and his flute being, unironically, the song from any I’m most interested to hear. Moldova have completed their auditions and Satoshi will probably end up as the pick there. In preparation for when I settle down this evening with a drink and get ready to not watch Albania’s Festival I Kenges, I’ve done the highly scientific, fool proof method of checking the four most viewed entries on YouTube for a minute each and seeing if anything was worth the one euro at 28s available to win. They were not.

Cyprus are the only country whose act who we know for certain after the early internal selection of Antigoni. On closer inspection, it’s not as much of just a PR grab and unwarranted push than it might seem and the reveal that her song will be wrote by Claydee adds some interest back.

Countries we’ve not heard from to avoid Imo are San Marino (if Italy are struggling for names that doesn't bode well for what they can take from the rejects pile), Romania for whom a victory on immediate return seems a big ask, Azerbaijan who are averaging about 1 televote point per participation recently and Austria, ‘cos hosts. A word too on Portugal who are by stealth one of the powerhouses of the last decade but for whom 75% of their Festival Da Cancao field are already planning to turn down the ticket. RTP need to get their house in order and fast and explore alternatives now, with their last minute dates before Heads Of Delegation meeting/submission deadline making a wait and see approach untenable.

With all that, the fictional escbetting sportsbook odds would be the following:

Ukraine 6

Sweden 10

Israel 10

Italy 12

Finland 18

France 18

Greece 20

Luxembourg 20

Norway 25

Belgium 25

Poland 25

Lithuania 25

UK 25

Germany 25

Armenia 25

Bulgaria 33

Switzerland 40

Denmark 40

Australia 40

Cyprus 40

Czechia 50

Croatia 50

Romania 50

Latvia 50

Georgia 50

Estonia 50

Moldova 50

Malta 50

Serbia 66

Austria 66

Portugal 66

San Marino 85

Albania 85

Azerbaijan 100

Montenegro 100

Feel free to leave a comment and tell me what I’ve missed and who you’d be betting on in with this fictional bookmaker.

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