Melodifestivalen 2026 Blind Preview

The last set of melfest winners in Loreen, Marcus and Martins and Mans Zelmer... Oh. Well the last three melfests have had clear favourites even if not all got across the line but 2026 looks a bit less obvious. Let's run through some of the favourites...

Greczula

Its easier to count the pundits who didn't say Greczula would be back and serious this year after his third place last time out and the first part of that has come to pass. Was priced fairly equally at the top of the odds but has pulled away in the last few weeks. This would still be the most Melfest-typical winner, and the safest podium pick, even if he's supposed to be something a bit different and more authentic in the lineup.

Smash Into Pieces

A band with two third place finishes under their belt with two identical songs in 2023 and 2024, Smash are in that goldilocks zone of being just about edgy enough whilst also mainstream and unchallenging which is necessary for a melfest audience broken down into age groups and with international jurors. In fairness, despite their podium spots they were a long way behind two very convincing Melfest winners and whether they have a song in them to find the extra 50+ points a winning effort would need is tricky. 

Felicia

A new name but another returning artist with Felicia the former Froken Snusk, whose tenure in that position ended with some drama and a recasting which from what I'm aware has gone down pretty badly. In a roundabout way, Felicia is this year's sympathy narrative but maybe more interestingly has an anti-corporate or elitist vote ready to go. Eyes and attention will be on her and there's the call to vote ready to go, *if* her song can fill the role too. The international jury appeal is also somewhat more dubious and an entry from her to satisfy both constituencies isn't very easy to construct. 12s don't entice blind, but one who could become a steam train in the right circumstances.

AleXa

Alexa was the winner of the ill-fated American Song Contest so arrives here with that pedigree and angle. K-Pop trimmings and Melfest to me also go somewhat hand in hand with a focus on a full slick package and big show, the sort of thing that when done well can score heavily from juries who are trained to focus on the total concept and production values. It could also be a car crash and how keenly Swedish audiences will take to her is unknown.

Medina

Much like Smash Into Pieces, we know what we are going to get here - a big happy fiesta anthem/ football chant mix. They've shown a high end of public support but have possibly peaked at the contest with it being difficult to replicate another charge. Juries may also be an issue.

Sanna Nielsen

In Eurovision terms, the biggest name in the field with a bronze medal from 2014 following her Melfest win with 'Undo'. Odds are very generous here for a former MF winner on first return given a spot in the typically hyped last semi final but they aren't something I'm snapping up either. In my view, which I think might be shared, just too much time might have passed and the younger age groups voting could leave Sanna with a big deficit to make up, but she should have older voters and jury support. Some value, if the song stacks up of course.

A*Teens

A group who are neither teens or worthy of an A* in my view, but then i’m not Swedish and the nostalgia appeal of their participation is not aimed at me. Theoretically, could have broad Televote appeal across the age categories with what should be a kid friendly entry, something unchallenging to the older groups and maybe getting the nostalgia vote from some of the middle groups. Something happy and non-challenging can do well with the public, but again the juries can prove an issue here with an early 2000s throwback/schlager track a difficult sell in 2026, if that's what we get. Not considering these as a serious challenge to win for now.

From other names, Jacqline made an impression on her previous appearance with 'Effortless' which perhaps didn't score as well as it should have which is paradoxically a concern, as is her semi allocation where she may be up against it for an automatic spot. I like her, but this doesn't scream challenge. There's been more positive talk for Patrick Jean but I don't foresee any notable improvement on past results whilst Robin Bengtsson's every-other-year participations in this are past the point of stale. He’s a good artist but is hard to take serious. Meira Omar is straight back after being last year's non-direct grower which can be a positive sign and 2023 Swedish Idol winner Cimberly brings some past public vote success but doesn't look to have done much since then. Blade is sat in the final heat at tempting odds if you feel they're saving something and it's not Sana or Alexa, She’s back under a new name after 10 years (previously Isa) and is a good performer, perhaps with more identity now.

Of course, we haven't touched on the actual act at the top of the odds yet who are Korslagda, having seen a rise from 'I have no idea, 80-1🤷🏼‍♂️' to around 4s in the last few days. Word is the band themselves started the ball rolling with a bet on themselves with "value" hunters then giving it a hand. It's got them a mention on the world renowned escbetting.com and a few bemused comments on r/eurovision and at X so a solid investment.

Blind Prediction

1. Greczula

2. Alexa

3. Sanna Nielsen

Greczula is the prediction least likely to end up a mile off the pace and me with egg on my face so I'll say him which means we're due a first hearing of the winner very soon. Alexa and Sanna feel like having a higher top end on the jury side than the rest of the blind favourites not listed so make my top 3. It's questionable if two are likely to make it from the final heat into the overall top 3 so I’m more hedging my bets that at least someone from there will, even more so when I declare Blade as the outsider to watch. Overall, this is more of a jury weighted prediction as its really hard to seperate anyone on the TV front before we get the entries and any stats.

At Eurovision

Sweden are an awkward one to judge this year and I’m not sure who from the lineup is a really serious threat overall. Frans, Cornelia Jakobsen and KAJ of course all came from varying degrees of out of the blue and the Melodifestivalen winner is rarely left floundering in the odds. 10s on offer seem reasonable at this stage but overall I’d say there’s more 6th-10th likelihood than 1st-5th this year.