Pre Rehearsals Prediction Update
Eurovision month is here and Rehearsals are set to begin giving me chance for one last quick update on my predictions for the year. Generally my thoughts on Eurojury, the various pre-shows and pre-parties in terms of how countries have moved in my estimations:
Very positive: Albania
Positive: Greece, Denmark, Cyprus, Poland, Croatia, Moldova, Belgium
Meh: Italy, Israel, Finland, Australia, Norway, Czechia, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Armenia, Estonia, Germany, Georgia, Lithuania, Portugal, Azerbaijan
Slightly negative: Sweden, Malta, Romania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Serbia
Negative: Ukraine, Austria, San Marino
Uh-Oh: Latvia, The UK.
This is in relation to what I was expecting anyway at the contest, what I was expecting in these metrics and how many places upwards a country might have jumped or fallen in my predictions. Albania is the only one with irrefutable evidence that it can do better than I thought and has an outside chance at Top 10, whilst Latvia have took a decent dent in qualifying chances (not terminal but no evidence of a jury top 5 that may be required to push them through) and The UK have sunk well into last place contention for now when I previously thought they'd be alright. The rest are somewhere in between.
It's still shaping up a tight year and generally people can and are spinning the top of the Eurojury Results whichever way suits: Are Australia still on for the big jury 275+ they almost certainly need to win? Yeah sure, we've seen bigger shifts and changes and they're in the margin of error for that. Could Denmark win the actual jury at Eurovision? Yep, not unrealistic. Have Finland done enough? Again, backers would probably settle for that result before taking it to the public vote. Greece have proven they can hang in there and seen the biggest odds move and that's something I've gone back and forth on. On the one hand, there's the necessary evidence that providing a good staging and performance they can reach the 150+ jury mark that will be necessary, no one else has gathered up a head of steam (though they still could) and practically were the Eurojury Results repeated it's probably a clear shootout with Finland. On the other, I made them favourites a month ago with a 20%~ win chance having foreseen exactly this and remain more uncertain on if the Televote is definitely going to be in the 240~ region. That for me has been the bigger unknown for now.
Finland are holding strong everywhere and it does remain more of a judgement call than anything scientific that it won't resonate as much as expected on the Televote, that the discussion throughout Eurovision week will leave them behind. On the jury, I don't see it deviating much from 3rd/5th with a solid but non winning score.
I've not particularly changed my views much on the semis other than Ukraine looking more vulnerable in that top 3 and for now I'm going with:
Semi 1
1. Finland
2. Greece
3. Israel
4. Moldova
5. Sweden
6. Croatia
7. Serbia
8. Lithuania
9. Estonia
10. Portugal
11. Montenegro
12. Belgium
13. Poland
14. Georgia
15. San Marino
Semi 2
1. Australia
2. Denmark
3. Cyprus
4. Ukraine
5. Romania
6. Malta
7. Albania
8. Bulgaria
9. Norway
10. Czechia
11. Armenia
12. Latvia
13. Switzerland
14. Luxembourg
15. Azerbaijan
I'm still going with Finland in Semi 1 and I think the tide will turn more towards Greece as the week goes on, particularly on the jury side but it’s narrow margins. In semi two I guess Australia has the edge over Denmark and Cyprus can possibly sneak into third there.
For the final, I plugged in my numbers - call it a quantified opinion rather than something objective and got the following:
Jury
1.Australia 233
2. Denmark 201
3. France 170
4. Greece 165
5. Finland 160
6. Italy 135
7. Malta 110
8. Sweden 95
9. Czechia 90
10. Cyprus 85
11. Albania 75
12. Israel 70
13. Moldova 65
14. Ukraine 63
15. Croatia 55
16. Romania 55
17. Norway 53
18. Bulgaria 51
19. Lithuania 30
20. Serbia 22
21. Portugal 18
22. Germany 17
23. Estonia 8
24. Austria 4
25. The UK 0
TV
1.Greece 246
2. Israel 227
3. Moldova 168
4. Italy 166
5. Finland 152
6. Ukraine 145
7. Romania 121
8. Denmark 117
9. France 101
10. Australia 98
11. Cyprus 87
12. Bulgaria 73
13. Albania 72
14. Sweden 70
15. Lithuania 52
16. Malta 51
17. Croatia 40
18. Norway 31
19. Serbia 25
20. Portugal 21
21. Austria 8
22. Estonia 8
23. Germany 5
24. The UK 4
25. Czechia 0
Total
1.Greece 411
2. Australia 331
3. Denmark 315
4. Finland 312
5. Italy 301
6. Israel 297
7. France 271
8. Moldova 233
9. Ukraine 208
10. Romania 176
11. Cyprus 172
12. Sweden 165
13. Malta 161
14. Albania 147
15. Bulgaria 128
16. Croatia 95
17. Czechia 90
18. Norway 84
19. Lithuania 82
20. Serbia 47
21. Portugal 39
22. Germany 22
23. Estonia 16
24. Austria 12
25. The UK 4
It's a healthy margin for Greece but I don't want to overplay that - it's the sort of margin that doesn't accurately match my confidence in them, one staging miscalculation or seeing it behind Finland and Moldova in post semi stats sees that lead evaporate and then some.
Second to Sixth is more of the inconclusive mess that I expected to see. Some changes from a month ago see Denmark much more competitive and I do think they've shown enough to be around the jury 200pt mark in this field and they should emerge from semi 2 relatively intact to see some Televote support. 117 points on that is probably right between the sceptics and what the fans might guess, an extreme Ingrosso or Claude style collapse is still possible, but not something I can reliably predict, as is it doing similar to JJ with a 160~ score but for now I’m in the middle. They're already in danger of showing me up from barely a week ago and making the top 4. It's similar to Australia in that way of scoring strong with the juries for certain and questionmarks on the Televote but Delta Goodrem feels more likely to have a bigger difference between the two and more potential to pull away before we take it to the public.
I retain faith in Sal Da Vinci to be in the mix around the more expected countries and the best performing on the Televote of the more "mature" acts of Finland and Australia. This is the first time I'll outright say I think Italy will beat France again. Ideally Monroe would be riding a bit higher now but do she does still have a fair swing and it's Ukraine and Sweden who've took a more comprehensive step back and I don't see them in the top 5 conversation. Israel look set for a similar, maybe slightly better jury score but I’ve gone sub 250 on the Televote which is also difficult to second guess but incorporates a small drop off in support and an unfavourable line-up swap.
Moldova I'm confident will be somewhere right in the mix on the Televote which will see them in the top 10. Romania remains a bit of an enigma but just sneak into my top 10 and Cyprus are pretty much at their floor in this prediction I feel and remain one to watch out for. Malta, Albania and Bulgaria round out my top 15 which features precisely 0 surprises which statistically would be unlikely.
My Position
I've been on Greece since before the song and it's by far my biggest Green outright. Australia perhaps as a surprise actually follows with me having gone hard on E/W at Eclipse's release around 26s. It's not something I'm bullish on at all but the place has a good chance, as does the jury win and splitscreen appearance. Italy, Cyprus and Moldova are the next most backed in outright and top big 5, semi e/w (Ukraine looks vulnerable) and Televote winner/top 10 respectively.
On the rest - Finland, France, Israel, Denmark - I've mainly took a wait and see approach, never feeling quite inspired enough to go and back them substantially and I'm holding more back than usual should I need to move. Qualification backs have been kept pretty minimal except Albania and I've shifted more towards The UK for last. Anything else you can probably deduce should you care.
If in 5 days I have to write another piece bemoaning Greece's staging and present a different top 4 blame the year, not me! This for better or worse is a tricky edition to call still.