What You Should Not Be Sure Of
In follow up to yesterday's piece on things I'm pretty sure on, it's time to flip it back around in the style of Sakis Rouvas, Donny Montell and Sarah Bonici.
Here are ten selections at relatively short odds, that carry a high level of doubt. These aren't necessarily my predictions, I currently see several of these happening, but I'm not taking them for granted...
Don't be so sure that Romania finish in the top 10
I was one of the first betting folk to propose Romania as an entry with potential before it caught on in wider circles. In the review those top 10 or higher credentials I believe it has were tempered with Romania's record at staging and uncertainty over how the jury will react to this. It's a congested eastern field on the Televote too. 'Choke Me' could easily finish in the top 10 or as low as 18th and dare I say there's a non zero percent chance at an NQ in a tricky semi. It's one to be open minded on, I remain positive, but it should not be odds on for top 10.
Don't be so sure that Czechia qualify
I have Czechia making it through the semi final but in 9th-10th and again, this is a tricky field. Even if there's not a lot of dancing at this point, there are still shades of last year and questions on if the staging can sell this. The draw isnt great and Czechia never have many if any guaranteed televoting points leaving this very reliant on a jury top 5 I expect. Again, one with dark horse potential, but something that should be trading closer to 2, not 1.4.
Don't be so sure that Montenegro qualify
It's a similar story with Montenegro in semi 1 where the draw doesn't do this many favours and the track record is poor. The overall barrier to qualification is lower and there are allies here but this is still touch and go and casual appeal is lower than what fans expect. We've also heard the performance will be pretty similar and unchanged which isnt hugely inspiring. Another that is close to a coin toss.
Don't be so sure that Portugal will NQ
Portugal's situation this year is rated by the markets as less dire than it was last, perhaps in recognition of what was then a surprise. It's worth repeating though you just can't write this country off over the last ten years with several unrated entries going on to achieve admirable results. There's barely any regional support in semi one, no great indicators and a weak national final performance but there's also much room to improve, a real niche and a pretty low bar to pass. Portugal have made far bigger upsets than scraping to 10th in a weak 15 song semi and this isn't d.o.a like the fandom might assume.
Don't be so sure that France finish top big 5
I like Monroe a lot but I'm not hugely impressed with this song or what the purpose of it is. Overall, I'm still positive on this but there are warning signs developing and France tend to either do as expected - or fall away quite badly with not much in between. I won't hype Italy up (too much) here but the track record vs France is 12-2 since 2011 and plenty of times these were at one time or another surprise outcomes. I'm not negative on France or comparing the artistic merit of each proposal, just saying this is a more volatile h2h than might appear and there's value in the upset. The UK and Germany won't feature however.
Don't be so sure that The UK will beat Germany
On that note, let's focus on their individual h2h. I don't think there's any doubt that Look Mum has the wider range and more potential between the pair but some pretty concerning signs are beginning to appear. Quite a few mentioned at the time of release that there were some similarities in tone to 'I Don't Feel Hate' (fittingly from Germany, 2021) and that cringe vibe was one of my bigger takeaways from watching clips of the first performance at the London Eurovision Party. The last place market seems to agree with Germany double the odds of the UK there. Bookmakers don't seem to have caught up however with The UK still priced as favourites in the h2h should you care to search it out allowing me to include this here, something which looks a bit dubious and should be closer to 50/50, if not slightly towards Sarah Engels. There's still plenty to be rescued with staging, but taking on the UK is probably a good play currently.
Don't be so sure on Sweden's jury vote
I say this as someone who rates Sweden's package quite highly from a jury perspective and who does think they'll be in the top 10 and who thinks this is helped more than most by the mandatory younger jurors. There are some negative signs however:
The melfest jury score was lower than usual (granted mainly thanks to a blanking from Italy).
The preview show Adresse Wien from you'd expect a strong ally in Norway had this as the winner of the show, but barely ahead of Moldova, Italy and Montenegro.
Finland and Denmark (and Australia) complicate things and push this down the pecking order.
Sweden did worse than most expected as a favourite last year.
The rationale behind the second place draw in the semi can be debated, but it's not the strongest sign of producer love.
Staging is already known and doesn't offer much room for improvement if it isn't landing.
And adding this in with the huge caveat we are just three countries in to the very rough guide of Eurojury, and maybe they're teasing us, but it's been a very poor start there.
I'm still pretty upbeat, but there is enough out there to have some doubts....
Don't be so sure Malta won't be in the top 10
I think many of us have forgotten about this one and I kind of have too to be honest but out of the many trying to receive the jury push through semi 2 (Luxembourg, Switzerland, Latvia and the previously mentioned Czechia) this is drawn the best and seems the safest to actually feature on the Saturday night. Malta are a traditionally strong scoring country with the jurors and it's very easy to throw a few points at 'Bella'. The Televote could be difficult as is Maltese tradition too but there is some charm and warmth to the package which means I don't think it's a guarantee this ends with like 7 points on the Televote. My stance is actually unchanged from the review 3 months ago:
"Overall, I think this is heading for a mid-table position, perhaps a top 10 is just in reach if the televote does not completely evaporate between Thursday and Saturday".
A 22% chance at last matched odds is perhaps a bit on the low end.
Don't be so sure on the top 5
We currently have five entries odds on in this market and whilst I'm not going to single any out here it's important to remember just how fluid things can be, this year in particular and 4 of the 5 come with some staging questionmarks where we are not sure what exactly we are going to get and there are countless examples in the past of things sliding away more than you would ever expect. Suggesting Italy 2017 for example would not win at this stage was a controversial opinion, let alone having them 6th whilst many more have failed to even make the top 10 after being highly fancied. Every single one of the five are vulnerable to losing their spot in there.
Don't be so sure on the public favourites
Phrased that way to sidestep the Israel and Ukraine situations where there probably is a level of certainty in predicting within give or take 10%, the rest of the entries are volatile and could vary a lot. There's a good 100pts difference in my opinion on the highest and lowest scores all of Finland, Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, France, Australia, Denmark, Sweden and Cyprus could get and I'd say possibly even more for Romania and Moldova. Something always hits harder than expected and this is something that will only become certain after the semi finals. It's also pretty likely at least one of the "jury songs" will manage to land to some extent with the public and leapfrog some others when the idea of which countries actually have a chance enters the perceptions on the Saturday night.