Semi Final One Prediction
Semi finals day is here and most of the arguments are at this stage drawn out so hopefully I can keep this a bit brief.
This is also a bit of a weird one here for you all from the guy saying Greece are going to win the whole thing, and the long term favourites are overestimated, but I actually narrowly have this as advantage Pete and Linda over Akylas. There are three main reasons for this:
I think we’ve seen higher levels of fan engagement in the semis vs the final, and Finland hold more of an edge in the bubble, cancelling out a lot of the casual appeal gap myself and others have theorised.
I think this is a weaker semi final for jurors than the final will prove, and Finland probably is the most complete package - and less divisive than Akylas. The current odds probably also help this in a self fulfilling way.
Greece can’t put it’s big geographical advantage to full use in this semi, like it can in the final.
Gun to head, I’m going Finland here, but the expectation remains and is more solid than ever things will change in the coming days and the margin is incredibly small on my maths anyway.
Now, I think the arena poll is probably more relevant for the grand final but taking place in a western country, in an audience packed with fans and with something a bit less constrained with staging for the arena, Finland probably should have been further ahead of Greece here before taking into account the engaged Greek diaspora but like I say, this may have more implications in the final than here.
Moldova’s big win despite being amazing for a live crowd, is still the real sit up and take notice moment and without being hyperbolic and noting Sweden's clear win in the semi one poll last year had no resemblance to what happened there, I think that confirms they will be somewhere in the televote top 5 in the grand final, probably around 200pts and will be competing very strongly on that tonight also. It’s a suspicion I have held all season, a little shaken fittingly by the over use of the shaky cam and rehearsal snippets but I was waiting for this to really be sure where it fits in the pantheon of Moldova’s televote gold: casuals are buying it.
Israel poses a threat at winning the televote out from both of them which I have seeing them into 3rd overall with an average jury score - it’s quite hard to mark them down in this field and the raw televoting numbers we’ve seen from Spain yesterday and Italy back in 2024 suggests there is a ridiculous buffer against an interest drop off. Numbers will be down, but points not so much.
Moldova follow in 4th with a strong televote ahead of Sweden and Croatia are next with strong expected consensus on both sides of the vote with Serbia a touch behind. I’m pretty comfortable with this order and these are sailing through.
In the first real change from my earlier predictions I have Poland as a fairly comfortable qualifier now with them having done a good job on this. I also think it arrives at a good time for jurors and the smattering of lower than usual diaspora votes should help. That was wrote before the arena poll where this also achieved a great result so everything points to this going through.
Lithuania slip one place as a result and I may have been a bit harsh on the jury vote- more will perhaps “get” this. Possibly fewer televoters will too than I have estimated but overall, I’m still fairly comfortable this is through
Allocating that last place is a real pain and I have a suspicion whoever is here will have a pretty low total. Montenegro have fan love and two likely very strong supporters, Estonia have some name recognition in a few countries and feel like they are less divisive for the jury, Portugal are offering a good niche and have previous whilst even San Marino have been performing ok in rehearsals and if there’s any position for a lol/troll vote to work it’s here. In the maths I did, which is a mix of my opinions of a country’s strength with a bit of a framework around it, I got 15 points between this quartet with Portugal ever so slightly ahead and I’ll stick with that since I’ve had them there for much of the season.
Belgium and Georgia are the two I don’t see qualifying and cut further adrfit. Essyla is far likelier out of the pair with a much better live but the song remains an issue for me. Georgia I opposed early and things have only gone one way.
I don’t have an incredible amount to add really at this stage or have any sizeable plays that will be settled tonight beyond Georgia not making it and the top 8-9 “certainties” doing so. If Estonia could get through it would be a little better too fwiw although live right now San Marino might be the more fun play.
I have some Greece for the semi win from a month back (and top 3) which should be pretty close and certain respectively. If Moldova could sneak 3rd at Israel’s (or Finland’s! expense that would also be a nice Sunday morning surprise). Ultimately, I’ve kept this semi pretty low-key this year and don’t regret doing so.
Enjoy the show later and the first true test of many of our theories for the year- seeing the two favourites square off in the semis like this should be quite enlightening and impactful on the odds…