Denmark 2026: Søren Torpegaard Lund With ‘Før Vi Går Hjem’
Still deep in the backlog at escbetting towers and this time it’s current the current 2nd favourites for the win -Denmark!
So, this is a conundrum. I don't aim for it to be this way but usually when I think something is underrated by others or the market I'll be a bit more positive, and when something is overrated I'll focus more on the negatives. What I'd love to do would be to shout about Denmark bringing a practical certainty to qualify, of having delivered a staging almost ready to go for Vienna, and for daring to send something even slightly bold. But then this is 7s to win the whole thing, which makes it difficult. I’ll try to be balanced and put that to the side.
Soren is incredibly talented and elevates this live with a great vocal and presence selling this. I've seen it compared to what the goal was for Olly Alexander's 'Dizzy' (UK 2024) but the execution is night and day, this is edgy and powerful but accessible enough. One of the traits I always like in a Eurovision song is a strong consistent build and that's executed pretty well here. Verse to chorus to bridge to climax works to keep engagement and end in a high. I do think it's lacking that little something to transform this from a good song to a great one however, part of the reason this was broadly overlooked before rehearsals. The language debate has been settled by now but I can see why they briefly considered a swap to English or a bi-lingual version. Danish gives this a bit more of a usp and kick so overall it's the right decision, but not the slam dunk keep it native these topics usually are.
The DMGP victory was interesting in this seeing off two more fancied entries which had had all the airplay and momentum, and in the case of Sissal lots of goodwill (and some fatigue no doubt). From the three-way Super final Soren gathered around 40% each of the Jury and Televote so consistently clear but factoring in Sissal and Ericka-Jane's somewhat overlap, and the fact we'd be calling Denmark closer to a coin toss to qualify with either of those, I'm not sure how strong of an indicator it actually was and this coming out of left field to win there has probably spooked the market more than it should have. Definitely not a result to be sniffed at and national finals can lead down incorrect wormholes, but just something I think has been overblown a tad.
Back to the winning chance, there is a point to this being one of very few if any songs picked so far that lean jury, and that this most closely fits the last two jury winners. This however doesn't have the same compositional/studio components those did, only making people sit up and take notice live. That's a great trait to have, and a thousand times better than the other way around, but we're talking win chances here and this to me speaks more like a 100-200 jury points song, than some huge push.
As for the Televote, this is an Eastern leaning lineup and it's possible Denmark are third in line in their own neighborhood too for regional love behind Finland and Sweden (assuming Felicia). I'm not sure this is surpassing 100 Televote points. Combined, 150-300 pts, 5th-10th place, I think that is a generous prediction and also a bit of an upper limit. I think most of the juice has already been squeezed out of this entry's prediction and the current single figures odds are very short at this stage. I want to see far more signs in favour of this, and against others, before really entertaining it as a challenger.
Soren is obviously qualifying and the return of juries to the semi finals gives them a chance for Denmark to win in the field as it is now but there's a lot of countries loosely in the running there. I'll treat myself to a very non committal prediction for now on that.
Personal Rating: 14/20
Staging Potential: 18/20
Televote Potential: 14/20
Jury Potential: 18/20
Track Record: 12/20
Overall Rating: 76/100
Early Prediction: Semi Two 1st-6th, 5th-10th in the final.
Volatility Factor: 2/5 - I don’t really see this shifting around in my prediction much unless we get real solid jury winner indicators and (non fan) polling… Unless Trump turns his focus back on Greenland 🤡.