2026 Season Review
We’ve had a few days to process and recover from a wild ride this year and I’ve found the time to spit out some thoughts on it all. Nothing heavily researched on the numbers or anything like that, others are far better and more interested in finding that sort of thing, this will be more firing from the hip. This has after all been a year of vibes and instinct so it’s fitting.
I’ll run through the top 10 before looking at the more broader topics.
We start at the top of course with Bulgaria who managed to transform a fun, original but "guilty pleasure" type song into a serious, show stopping production without losing any of the charm or fun through unique staging and DARA's star power. It's a great winner for the contest: unanimous, landslide, Televote winner for a change, first time winner for a change, eastern winner for a change. What's not to love?
Without getting into a ranking match, this feels like it may be one of the memorable winners and positive outcomes for the contest in a while.
From the start I was pretty optimistic on there being an upside to this, but not something I was particularly vocal or bullish about, mainly hanging around 10-15th in my predictions.
Looking back at my song review, it’s fortunately very open to a positive outcome on this which is why I eventually could come on board with it and it’s funny how comparisons to ‘Slo Mo’ and what was required were made back then!
Became more and more clear this was the real deal over the days since the first eyes on the rehearsal and it's insane to think this was in the 300s barely a week ago. Only Friday morning post semi I went to full believer and even then was more Top 3 than easy victory of course.
Israel are second again and whilst it's a horrific look there's a certain amount of bad fortune on both occasions for the EBU that their points tallies are enough to make the split screen. There was a drop off on the Televote as assumed but a higher than expected jury score with Michelle doing just as well as it might have pre-'23. I might even argue it did a little better with juries than it deserved but it is a good song, staged well with some cool choreography and easily accessible.
Romania much like Bulgaria were one I really liked as a dark horse from the start although the song review was more cautious overall and concerned over the staging. Found scouting on the forums back in the early season for anything being talked about and I immediately liked even in the outright. I should have remembered that initial reaction more and not been looking for an absolute miracle staging whilst critiqueing one not so far off. Perhaps let some talk me out of this instead of arguing the case for it. Overall I Flip flopped a bit but it's a fantastic result for Alexandra who could be the other big breakout star after DARA and when Romania get it right on the Televote they get it very right. Slightly hard done by on the jury side even but not unexpected and scored close to its max.
Australia made an instant impression too on release and always seemed a jury threat but televote doubts had me wondering about this, eased by the arena poll and reactions that it would do respectably at minimum which made it my gun to head winner out of Bulgaria and Greece. Still a little surprised this didn't do better on the juries even if you can spin the narrative as to why which we'll come to in overall thoughts it is a pretty complete package in the field.
If I can claim absolute bragging rights in any one area this year it's on my read of Italy with my prediction of this spot on and unwavering, as opposed to last year. That was an example of me convincing myself to taking on an entry I actually didn't hold such a strong opinion on where this year was the ultimate example of how you can profit if you have a good read on just one or two countries. 4th would have been nicer, but 6th painful so I'll more than take this. Top big 5 shouted for throughout the season. Maybe I'm just a strange Sal fan boy and lucked out but this was a joy to have in the competition and another example of Italy being an absolute powerhouse in the contest.
Finland 6th and yeah, I could go on for a long time here but all the doubts many of us had and I summarised came to pass. I was actually too kind to them by the end. What's interesting to note is that ironically they are the one country we now know was never able to win the contest: the staging was locked in, the running order perfect, rules bent and starting from such a high position of fan love it was almost impossible they wouldn't lose a bit of momentum which is not to be discounted as a factor but isn’t the reason behind this slipping from the top 5. Every other entry had more of a theoretical path you could strawman.
Denmark did about what I might have thought for most of the year eventually but not without some ups and downs and 7th is a good result for them from opening the show, better than I had it for on Saturday anyway. Pleased for them and Soren and hopefully this is not an aberration, that's a qualification and a top 10 now giving DR plenty to work with but also increased expectations.
Moldova, who are always a joy to have on duty, and Ukraine, are almost exactly where I had them the whole time and don't need much comment, I think everyone had these here or close with similar splits.
Greece needs to be discussed in 10th and the one I've thought back to the most on. I do think the over represented Greek voices in the Eurovision community, (Υειά Σας!) played a part in inflating this but there was genuine winner potential and it was not unreasonable for this to trade in the 5s/6s it did just before rehearsals. I was vocal in having this not in the same league of all the examples we know but did think it was a very possible or likely winner (150J/250TV etc). Underestimated how much of an effect a staging I was never fully sold on would have, or the damage that the Balkan rivals would eventually inflict when they showed up having staged their entries well and with more actual voting power. Greek hype may outscore most on visibility but not on actual diaspora numbers if it comes down to that. Even with hindsight on those issues, 10th place seems low but I guess the points do make sense. Could/should have backed off the hype train more but not damaging really, you won't get everything right and this was the main real trap I fell into, or more accurately stayed in after things started to turn.
Onto a couple of notable ones and France was left alone by me mainly and I at least sidestepped this landmine through my cautious approach this year, although by the end was called pretty close. "Don't take it for granted it beats Italy" slowly turned into "It certainly isn't" and their record of crashing out following some hype is becoming more and more regular and their record in that head to head even worse. Need to get out of ballad mode for next year.
I need to be careful with the Sweden tag because this is three years in a row I've overestimated them having previously had an exceptional read on them. Early thoughts of them as an outsider more embarrassing than damaging and I eventually course corrected on this with that televote in the final no shock, although the jury still is. Dire result for them. No surprise to see the rest of the countries that comprised the bottom 5 with all called very accurately here and by many of us which is always easier at the low end. The UK scoring 0 with the public for the third consecutive year was seen a mile away, and the other pair called too with Czechia dodging that fate however which will segue into the broader themes nicely.
Broader Topics
First off, to claim that Czechia's performance was not impacted is just false and they had a very strong case to perform again. This wasn't just a smoke machine gone rogue or the wrong camera cut and was in my opinion clearly a decision more on run-time and trying not to draw attention to the matter. I doubt a bigger broadcaster or a "contender" would have been refused. An informal nice running order draw from whichever half they are in next year -if they are in- would be a decent offer but doesn't do much good for Daniel. Linda's allowance to use the violin has also created the need now to set out in clear terms what exactly is or isn't allowed, on what grounds, and when requests have to be made by. We can't lose sight of the fact this is a competition and these two incidents add further grounds to question how level the playing field is, beyond my annual calls for the full random draw to be brought back which won’t happen.
Israel will continue to dominate the discussion and the issue of their Televote (and Ukraine's) is not going away. I'm not going to the effort of guessing at solutions again, the EBU have far better data to try and work out whether an app voting ranking system or some other mechanism or control on the Televote can work but it must remain in some way of course.
ORF have been piled on plenty and rightly so for a poor production away from the stage. Weak postcards a worse version of their 2015 one, some inexplicable filler and interval choices and the hosts. I don't hold Eurovision to a high entertainment standard -there's always going to be plenty of cringe - and some aspects almost became so bad it's good but still… Not a classic from that sense.
On to trends and there are a few, even if my interest in really diving deep into the data right now is non existent.
It's hard to say how much of an effect the two additional and minimum of two younger jurors seems to have had. Of course Bulgaria winning the jury and Australia "only" receiving 165 points and second place there, tied with the more youthful Denmark will be cited but looking at the semi final scoring of this trio muddies the picture with Australia going from over 8 points per jury to under 5. I know why both scores happen, but not in the same event. Belgium receiving such a big jury score in the semi final looks the clearest example however and Poland might also be but it's a bit of a mixed picture overall.
We did get some big switches in the televote between the semis and final too again with Serbia and Norway more so both falling away without their pimpslot and Poland was a victim as well having beat Finland and smashed Greece in the semi final, without it even being one of their best for diaspora. Again I think this was running order related and they were able to stand out in that awful half of the semi and perhaps abandoned in the final where Greece and Finland recovered through being seen as having a chance at winning when voters minds are focused onto things they love and their favourite from the favourites.
What was noticeable was the three "crazy party" guys all flopping (relatively). Greece falling to tenth after doubling down on the wackiness and misleading the narrative bridge, Armenia failing to qualify by a big margin, receiving 14th place in the semi final televote and of course The UK. Moldova has been grouped in there too and whilst there's some crossover, I don't consider it particularly similar - more of a fun anthem than a guy being wacky, ironic or eccentric (message or not). Several examples of guys messing about also fell in their national finals in Sweden, Germany, and Finland, as did a more serious Matt Blaxkxkkxkk in Malta. Things are cyclical in Eurovision always and I wonder if this subgenre has had its day for now with this being seen as the big opportunity for one to win then nothing. Will certainly be interested to see if there are any internal selections going that route.
The move to the east many expected did happen and depending on how the make-up of the competition remains this could continue too with many of those participants re-invigorated and back on form. Each country has historically been far less consistent than the western ones and if next year it’s Armenia, Croatia and Serbia in the top 10 with Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova lower the that figures but the overall gap seems flatter than it’s been for a long time.
Betting
This was my most profitable year since starting in 2016 but I’m not sure how I'd actually rate my performance. It's greedy, but it feels like some money was left on the table and a year like this doesn't come around so often, although who knows, the overall accuracy of the outright odds and predictions and volatility out there these last two years may be a longer trend. I can’t gloat over a super accurate winner prediction like 2017 (pre this site), 2021 or 2023 but overall there weren't many bad takes and I was never tempted at all to follow in on Finland.
On Bulgaria there was some brief first positive where I nibbled on the 270-300 that was available on the exchange at the time, I don't remember exactly what it was, maybe a poll or something similar and I basically chased it down in every market from there, but not so much the semi or T10, instead I went for the more extreme outcomes - T5, Winner, TV winner etc.
To me it felt if it was going to break through it would in a big way but no one had a consensus landslide like that... It was only the Friday morning when I stopped taking it for “value” and as a certain challenger. Italy contributed a good chunk (T5, Top Big 4, Top 10), Australia landing the early E/W I took on release of their song was fine, Lithuania top baltic luckily sewn up quickly and Albania was the biggest Q play I have made in a while. The UK was backed for last here following the London Eurovision Party performance though that damn Ukrainian jury 1 cost me some nil points bets that are rarely advisable but this year an extraordinary chance again- not close to scoring anywhere else.
Main losses were made on Greece (T5, Semi E/W - Bulgaria more than made up for taking top Balkan and Win), Australia jury win, Albania T10, Cyprus (trading out of T10/15 for a loss, and losing when they qualified), trading out on Sweden and Ukraine for a loss and Switzerland to Q - with Veronica hard done by.
There were more wins and losses but they were the main ones.
The Future
I'm really looking forward to (surely) Sofia and with some production assistance -NOT an SVT takeover- it will make a great host and the first I'm tempted to visit in the last two years, though I'm guessing it will be very in demand...
I've been doing this site since 2021 now and it might be time for a bit of a refresh or some changes here. Maybe more seperation between betting and odds vs prediction and general talk, a shake-up to the song review format, cleaner charts and graphics, presence on other socials, maybe some guest articles if any of you on my X circle are interested. I'm not sure exactly yet but I'd like to streamline things and improve a bit though one way or another I'll be around. On that note, the escbetting awards will wrap up the season in the next week or so whilst my interest still just about exists so check back for that.