Eurovision 2026 Grand Final Preview

In some ways this has been a strange year in the odds, in other ways not so much. Clear fan and market favourite Finland has been opposed on value grounds by the majority of commentators though this happens from time to time. What makes this year a bit different is that the combination of low participants and big expected differences on the jury and televote has resulted in most agreeing with the idea of a low winning score, which has brought many countries into the mix over the season.

Maybe we will get an easy winner, probably not, but either way this looks the most genuinely open year still that I have been a part of the build-up to.

I’ll state up front I believe 6, maybe 7 at a push, countries still have a possible path to victory. And in my estimations they are:

Most likely to win: Australia, Greece, Bulgaria.

Respectable chance: Finland

Longer shots: Israel, Italy.

Not 100% Impossible but highly unlikely: Romania

I’ll run through my predicted 1-25 starting from the bottom:

25th - The UK 0 pts (0 Jury, 0 TV)

The thing with risks is they don’t always pay off and everything points towards this not paying off in terms of results. I’m going for the Newman here. I don’t think it’s anywhere near as bad personally as 2021, last year's with my tastes or how some make out but a “joke entry” that doesn’t land is painful and we’re relying on a drunk televote in Malta or there being two wacky jurors in Australia to save the UK from a double nul. Maybe that’s hyperbolic, but there are no signs of this getting into televote or jury top 10s which we need to remember is the lense through which all scores are accumulated, for better or worse.

24th - Austria 7 pts (4 Jury, 3 TV)

I don’t have tonnes to say on this, it’s not a great example of a regional sound but that regional sound may be enough to get a few points on each side. Just feels lightweight and underproduced.

23rd - Germany 14pts (14Jury, 0 TV)

Fire as a song lacks an identity and Germany doesn’t feel the natural exporter of this which despite being very surface level just adds to the inauthenticity. It’s a good stage show, but also not very engaging beyond the trust fall and being placed second between Denmark and Israel is as bad as it gets. Sarah loses the vocal in parts and doesn’t fit the role perfectly if i’m being harsh. Things are slightly off and this will accidentally find itself in few or no televote top 10s. Jurors should probably save from last and I’ve maybe been a bit low on that front but I don’t see above 30 at all there.

22nd - Belgium 21 pts(21 Jury, 0 TV)

It’s 1-0 to the handful of Belgian followers I have after Essyla’s qualification in semi final one, but I’m coming in for the rematch and to spoil the party by suggesting a televote 0 is on the horizon here, or something single figures. It was assumed before the semi this would need a jury push and the statistics where this is virtually last from that heat’s qualifiers suggest that did happen. The jury drop is an old concept where songs that received a push in the semis then lose a lot of that support in the inevitably higher quality final, and I think that is what happens. The reason for this is that I don’t think 10th or even 9th required a significant points total assuming that is actually where they placed. Many layers deep on reading into it so take with a pinch of salt but surely too anonymous in a 25 song final…

21st - Norway 28 pts (20 Jury, 8 TV)

Jonas has been belting this out so well all season long but by his high standards last night was a poor showing and this is so badly placed between Italy and Romania. Some jury points for a still charismatic and professional showing and a few neighbourly tv points.

20th - Lithuania 40 pts (18 Jury, 22 TV)

This feels absurdly low for Lithuania whose base televote points is usually above this combined estimate. They are missing a few of those sources however and are probably going to get really outpaced by other diasporas. Not sure on the jury, some artistry but feels pretty irrelevant.

19th - Serbia 51 pts (22 Jury, 29 TV)

Just an eleven point gap in my maths but a good step up in quality from those mentioned already. Serbia has shown some flashes of strong numbers but I think a lot of this is domestic only and they haven't really broke through on the Televote with the exception of Konstrakta for a while and copy/paste the stuff about the other Balkans again. Jurors unlikely to come on board.

18th - Cyprus 50 pts (21 Jury, 33 TV)

Antigoni’s qualification has been the one most questioned from semi final two with the vocals the culprit and the cause of this losing any excitement in the odds. Cyprus are pretty well connected with Greece being the obvious points source for them and televote appeal is assumed following the qualification but they are another badly hurt by the far superior alternate regional offerings. Again possibly low given this is still doing good on a number of metrics but misses more top 10s than I expected in my maths. Maybe goes on to become a radio hit rather than gather votes.

17th - Czechia 96 pts (96 Jury, 0 TV)

I worry for Czechia on the TV and we’re back to the nul points in my guesswork on that side Yes that’s 4 now. No reflection on what this deserves. Seen as an outsider for the jury win but I think it will be closer to 10th. Great vocal, artistic staging but no overall impression left on me.

16th - Poland 97 pts (40 Jury, 57 TV)

Alicja and the delegation have done a great job getting this song into the final and comfortably so I assume. Decent staging and outstanding vocals get this somewhere into midtable, supported by diaspora, but I’m not fancying a surprise top 10 or anything. I'd love to see Alicja back for a second/third time in 5 years again maybe with a contending song.

15th - Sweden 118 pts (96 Jury, 22 TV)

One of my worse early reads was thinking Sweden may have a chance at contending or were at least on for their usual solid top 10. The staging is still technically good and the song a banger but Felicia has been a bit off her game and the mask is causing even more issues than thought it seems. Stats are very poor and vote motivation very low. Jury score on the edge or just in the top 10 but that won’t be enough for an overall top 10 by a longshot. Expecting a pretty disastrous televote score which you can add to your list of “out there” suggestions here.

14th - Malta 120 pts (109Jury, 11 TV)

Aidan and/or his team have been using every frowned upon tactic in the book from manipulating the odds, spamming advertisements encouraging all ten votes to be directed his way and buying views, now on the semi final which feels to cross more of a line. There’s no allegation of anything shadier yet but maybe all Aidan will achieve is to throw whatever result he gets into doubt. With that self generated cloud over him, it's worth being a bit cautious of what might be achieved, more so on the jury side. The funny thing is, it's actually an alright package for them anyway though overdone and Aidan not entirely convincing. The promo work might have done some good to lift this off the floor with the televote and there are worse packages even if the non-manipulated metrics and lack of diaspora put this as one of the statistically weaker.

13th - Croatia 157 pts (85 Jury, 72 TV)

The Balkans are queueing up trying to make it into the top 10 this year and Croatia are one to have gathered a bit of momentum from the first semi final. I’d guess maybe they were 4th there but interpretating semi results even after the fact is difficult. Lelek offer great vocals and a unique performance in the field that should be rewarded by both the jury and the Televote - to an extent. I have them on a bit of an island in 13th but could move up or down a couple of places or on a good night enter the jury top 10.

12th - Denmark 182 pts (141 Jury, 41 TV)

Semi Final Two was always going to be make or break for Soren and answer the question fairly definitively of if he could do anything of note with casuals. The answer as most suspected seems to be no and now he has the spot opening the show to contend with, and a drift in the odds removing him from the spotlight. Things can change very quickly. I think it’s a good opener the way this moves through the gears but it’s very much a decision that helps the show, not Denmark. Throw in all the big hitters on the tv and there’s room for a disappointing televote lower than I’d assumed. The jury vote should still be strong but any contention on that side looks over too.

11th - France 193 pts (142 Jury, 51 TV)

France have an unfortunate history of falling away from strong positions in the odds (2011, 2018, 2019, 2025) and this year has proved yet another with Monroe sitting at a hard to believe price of 130+. I have always had this as a volatile one with either winning or coming 15th believable but what is surprising is that low end is not a very controversial view currently. The calculated nature of this package and uninspiring song have been caught out and stats have been way below where they need to be. A lot of jury boxes are ticked here still and France should do well on that side. Monroe herself has the talent and charisma to be a Eurovision winner, but this is the wrong song and year.

10th - Ukraine 197 pts (56 Jury, 141 TV)

Ukraine have been doing poorly to average on most indicators which suggests two things - the jury support will not be amazing and the televote will be at their floor, especially with this draw sandwiched between the second and third favourite early on. Perhaps jury support will prove higher with this not a bad package, but increasingly feels like filler.

9th -Albania 201 pts (78 Jury, 123 TV)

Albania feel like one of the losers from the running order. These contrasts can go either way but I feel placing this next to Greece makes Alis feel overly wrought and dark, but not in a positive way. It’s also seemingly gone from being talk of the town in semi rehearsals for two minutes to completely ignored. Poor arena poll but a brooding depressing Albanian ballad isn’t really going to go big in the hall. Still, the diaspora is going to be highly motivated and there is jury appeal seeing how it’s popped up in a few places I wouldn’t have expected - and can exceed that in the less apparent on these metrics East. Feels a bit high but going with it.

8th - Moldova 216 pts (46 Jury, 170 TV)

You know that “it’s over, we're so back” meme? That’s me with my thoughts on if Moldova can win the Televote or compete at the very highest end. Even now I've only managed to narrow down a range i’m happy with to 130-190 which is still quite wide. Jury I’m going with something lower than I thought I would. Not expecting western juries to be thrilled despite the age lowering, mainly because there are more professional and better presented fun entries which this loses out to.

7th - Romania 276 pts (114 Jury, 164 TV)

Hmm, I’ve gone back and forth on this a lot and was one of the first exponents of it’s potential. Just the other night it looked the superior entry in my eyes to Bulgaria who those with 10 perception will see haven’t been mentioned. I’m not blind to the fact where most reactions to this are 9/10 whilst Bulgaria to compare is getting that - oh this could be serious level with the audience poll suggesting much the same. Romania will be competing hard on the televote but look over estimated there a touch versus competitors. Jurors absolutely should be rewarding this performance too so on the whole I’m pretty positive and this looks locked in on the top 10 now, which is an amazing return for them. Finland is holding up a lot of value in the market still, but 16s at the time of first draft and even 27 now looks too low and I’ve sold chunks of my 40+ off.

6th - Israel 302 pts (56 Jury, 246 TV)

What exactly new is there to say? The televote will likely be a bit down on previous years with the 5 out and 3 in not helping them, and less of a cause to get behind. Let’s say 230-250. Jury signs once again point to Israel being something around 12th on that side, in my opinion a little lower than it might have been pre 2024 actually for what is a good but not amazing package. Probably lands in the low 300s unless we are all very wrong about the jury side and this gets 100+ and engagement is so low they walk the televote.

5th - Italy 304 pts (129 Jury , 175 TV)

Beyond myself and a couple of others who’ve been shouting the merits of this, there’s no one and nothing concrete suggesting Italy is a serious challenger. But there’s also not much suggesting they won’t be either. Italy has consistently been around the top 10 of most measures, has one of the best track records and if one wants to interpret the running order in a traditional sense is sat in arguably the best position of the entire field, yet this has never really had its time in the odds with the market pretty confident he'll be 6th-8th and no more. I think this is far more dangerous than that and it’s been a not so secret suspicion of mine this year that Sal is offering absolute televote gold and maybe with a slightly slicker performance with better camerawork, shot selection and a middle section that progresses better this would be higher rated and actually regarded as a strong challenger. All those are complaints that on many times Italy have gotten away with and they have an incredibly reliable televote. I am expecting a top 5 televote score and something 100+ from the juries. Italy further have potential to be the most jury friendly of the televote songs (Moldova, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Israel*) or be well in that battle which makes them dangerous. I don’t think they'll feature in the top 4 but it’s not such an ask.

4th - Finland 311 pts (175 Jury, 136 TV)

The arguments are all finished and drawn out at this point, the only new angle to add is to debate on the semi one signs -and two- signs which are…meh. You’d have no idea this was an even money favourite that is expected to beat all but Israel in the televote odds. The respective running orders for this and the market alternatives such as Greece and Australia that the betting community, including myself, have been pushing for months offer a convenient out for us:

“Oh, but Finland only won because the EBU gave them a good draw, bent the rules on the violin and our picks were unlucky”.

Things have fallen very well and above average for them but it’s an out we shouldn't take unless Finland win by a narrow margin as the point has always been value and how much of a bubble entry this is, and even the bubble is perhaps coming to realise this is not such a standout. Finland getting a good deal was always expected and the impact of the draw will be overstated and interpreted in hindsight whichever way fits. Maybe more than their own running order, they have benefited from 2 key jury rivals of Denmark being thrown into opening the show and France not really igniting. They probably do make it to second in the jury now, but I still don’t really know if the score will be over 200 points or not. On that basis, a relative shortening is well justified but I still believe they were too short and are now too.

On the televote I remain unconvinced and have continued to lower my expectations. The West and Juries have managed to find at least one entry that does easily enough on the Televote to defend their jury advantage the last 3 years and Finland being framed as the winner elect helps to gather floating voters although this is changing rapidly.

Is Finland however showing enough that it can overcome stronger regional and diaspora countries however with this song or is engagement in the contest and voting uptake too low? Even if Finland finds itself one of the general viewer’s favourites does it get votes generated for it? I am assuming good televote points from fellow nordics and the baltic countries, but crucially I am expecting it to pick up 3s-6s in the likes of Germany, Switzerland, Belgium etc whose public votes are often not really representative of population wide sentiment and in the Balkans, Moldova, Israel and Caucasus I do fear for this even more. The vote in these countries I believe will prioritise their own entries out of shared tastes as much as anything. Greece I believe for example will be voting for Cyprus, Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, Israel, Moldova, Italy, Ukraine and then perhaps Finland. At least this is my read across too many of the competing countries.

Maybe myself and others who have and may or may not still be banging that drum are just wrong and this is the only thing to surpass what I think is going to be enough in 400pts but I still have them fighting it out with the rest lower than that.

3rd - Bulgaria 355 pts (134 Jury, 221 TV)

I had a soft spot for this in the first review I made though since then it hadn’t overly featured in my thoughts or was something I’d mentioned much at all just vaguely throwing it into that edge of the top 10 area. Staging rehearsal pics and the clip proved a dissapointment and instead were a reverse La Zarra with this far better in full motion. I wasn’t as blown away as others even then or in the semi final but there is something entrancing about the whole thing that you just want to watch it again and again which is a good proxy that suggests it can improve upon or maintain whatever it did in the semi final. It has felt like the year where something would come through and make a challenge I just couldn’t pin down who exactly but Dara is very much in the mix now having climbed into the top 2/3 of many metrics whilst fan media and other betting bros whose opinions I value are raving about this alike. This is peaking at just the right time and has been given a pretty good draw after two dull male ballads and spread away from Greece and Moldova. I’m not sure exactly where this places in the jury vote but if it’s anywhere above 150/160 it’s in with a shout and I have this almost inseparable with…

2nd - Greece 364 pts (142 Jury, 222 TV)

The brief background for anyone new: I lucked into a strong position on this early, continued backing 10+ for the time it was there before rehearsals and Akylas has long been the tip here. He has never been a convincing one however for me (kept at like a 20% chance permanently) with a televote range from 150-270 and an assumed max score on the jury of like 170, should it be on full gear and entering as a favourite and benefitting from regional support. This has never been the strongest of the ‘Crazy Party’ propositions but has on paper had the most favourable set-up. So how is he entering? That seems to be as the strongest on the Televote from semi final one at least (putting Israel aside) but with a performance that doesn't feel entirely convincing and is in danger of being inflated by Greeks smelling a chance at the victory and fully re-enaged with a national final back and successive strong finishes and popular participations

I look at the stats and Greece is on course still technically, look at the staging and I actually get some of the same uncanny valley, unclear narrative I do with Finland. Any sense of a message is lost and instead it’s a collection of zany ideas and Akylas for all his talents struggles slightly to not become a victim in Fokas’ crystal maze

What’s slightly worse than any subjective staging perceptions is that Greece maybe lacks the diaspora power I think at the very top end vs a few key rivals who have emerged at the wrong time as far as Akylas is concerned but the Greeks are making up for that in part in enthusiasm. I don’t think the draw is that bad and the advantage this held over the other entries threatening the televote such as in eurojury can’t be forgotten entirely. The gap has narrowed to the televote chasers but fundamentally, the groundwork is still there and there is always the chance casuals do just prefer this by a margin over other entries- Is there the Tommy Cash silly/troll energy if not the more unanimously liked Cha Cha Cha? In this prediction I have Greece as another close call and more pain for the next party bro to attempt to avenge next year (maybe still in Athens…)

1st - Australia 406 pts (271 Jury, 145 TV)

I was saying somewhere not too long ago, maybe in the Finland piece, that if the market could agree fully on the jury winner we’d see a close challenger to them other than Greece emerge as that is inevitable when a Jamala or Duncan Laurence path is proposed. Australia have done just that crashing from around 3.75 for the jury vote to odds on in the last week. It still looked backable at that even to me. Delta is in a different league here and whilst this is a bit of a dated song as we keep saying and an undeniably cheesy package it is incredibly effective for what it is. Consider how Alicja for Poland has turned an NQ song into a solid mid-table or maybe higher entry and this is that but even more effective and starting from a far better place. Australia’s charge also caught more fire with them winning the arena poll which whilst will not be repeated or anything close to that, suggests they can potentially defend what is potentially a mammoth jury lead.

That said, a lot of the voting power arguments above about Finland hold true here too. We have seen Australia do very well on occasion with the televote too and 2019 feels the most tonally fitting which got not dissimilar to what is estimated here. This is an uplifting performance, literally, which feels like it may even be the top Western country with the public, something which has been enough the past two years. Australia could potentially win this with a Televote score under 150 which is why the market has moved so strongly to them in the last couple of days and why they should be the current favourites, not Finland.

Overall

I’m very aware this is a pretty bullshit prediction, not necessarily based on the order - we will all take one and side with various things rightly or wrongly and shocks will happen- but with the points distributions being so level which feels statistically unlikely. Maybe the top 3 will pull away a bit more. is what I suspect will actually happen, but I’m not sure who they canibalise to do so.

My Position

I’m on the outsiders in the win market as I’m sure you’ve guessed and so far I’ve managed to select fairly well through just not getting involved one way or the other on France and Denmark which have been the traps this year. Maybe that’s a good omen for my spidey senses with Finland or that’s a step too far and myself and others will be found out when the televote just gives it 200+.

Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Australia, are the big greens for me in that order with Israel kept neutral. 20+ isn’t bad for them but something will surely get enough combined to see them off. I’ve actually not invested as much this year in the outright given my lesser certainty and I’m alright with having Finland at the medium red it is. If it can be covered at some point live fine, but as long as a couple of my picks make it into the top 4/5 I’ll live with it and I’m set up for a low risk, high return year. Should Italy fail to make it as high as I expect hopefully they beat France at least, Albania is wanted in the top 10 whilst I have a few other h2hs based on my rough orders and the odds I won’t bore with listing.

On the televote, Bulgaria is backed around 70 average for the TV win with some Italy (40~), Moldova (30~) and Greece (10~) so I’m taking on the favourite once again but only small and I’m not expecting to win that but seems worth a go. On the jury vote I’m hoping for Delta (2.6~) so finally siding with the favourite and some outlandish longshots covered.

For last place Belgium is covered at 21, Germany at 12 and the UK at 3 so hopefully Austria don’t finish last (or joint last) like the last time they hosted in 2015. For once the usually far too short 0 points odds may offer value too. Feels especially dirty calling for that and not something Sam or anyone else deserves but hey.

Good luck to everyone tonight in what might be one of the most thrilling results sequences ever. I've probably missed some points I wanted to make but this preview has been long enough so any new thoughts will be on X.

See you all on the other side.