28th February National Final Previews

Right, another very busy Saturday after a week off last time around with 4 Eurovision songs confirmed and Sweden's Melfest coming to a close. Let's crack on...

Melodifestivalen

Hmm. Much was promised with this semi final which could have been one of the all-time classics. It's not bad, but it's a long way from that but makes up for it in unpredictability with 4 entries in the running for the 2 automatic spots and the last second chance position. Sanna Nielsen is returning for the first time since her 2014 win (and countless attempts before that). Not 'Undo' in either style or quality but this a fair entry that she sells well considering a lack of much going on on stage. There's also precious little of the promised big staging (or words to that effect,I forget the exact quote) for AleXa who was rightly not best pleased to see one of her early rehearsals leak and the reaction to the song itself hasn't been great. Coming in I had quite high hopes for her, but an international act can't afford to show the weaknesses I think this does. Vilhelm Buchaus looked a safer bet, especially on the age groups if he needs those with this being the pick of the heat for me and something that should have broad support. His polling last night however was disappointing. Lilla Al-Fadj cant say that however with a win there and a strong case to go direct based of that. Granted this might suit the arena a bit more and if he can't ammas the most votes overall I'm not sure how the demographics break down for him.

Blade looks to be last and a case where there's not much to grab hold of and take from this with Juliett offering a bit more character, but not enough to threaten in the heat. Going with my gut a bit here but no confidence in this top 4 order: 

1. Sanna Nielsen

2. Vilhelm Buchaus 

3. Lilla Al-Fadj

4. Alexa

5. Juliette

6. Blade

UMK

Finland is home to our current odds favourites for Eurovision with them backed to around 5s on the assumption Pete and Linda have this sown up. I've been tempted to make the case for the underdog in Antti Paalanen with 'Takatuka' but it's incredibly slim. UMK in these post covid glory years has only seen several big favourites and only one upset in Windows95man. Whilst Antti can be compared to that, his opposition can not with 'Liekinheiten' top of pretty much any metric by a mile, in a 75% Televote final, with no reason for jurors to mark it down and with it being anything but a boring entry for the 'Drunk Finns' argument. Don't see anything but a landslide here.

1 Pete and Linda

2 Antti Paalenen

3 Kiki

4 Chachi

5 Kormiat

6 Sinnika Monte

7 Etta

MGP

Norway offers a bit more discussion with perhaps five challengers. Alexander Rybak of 2009 glory and 2018 respectability is the headline name. I'm not being contrarian when I say, personally, this is his worst effort of the three. Still, he's an exceptional showman and I'm sure will elevate 'Rise' live whilst his name recognition and credit in the bank are still pretty high. Emma probably has the best song and has been doing well in terms of stats. The younger sister of Marcus and Martinus and something of a child star, I'm not as concerned for her as other 17 year olds entering a competition like this, but MGP is not immune to performance issues that can sometimes enter the picture and delivering an interesting staging on this might be difficult. Mileo has an obvious staging concept and sits as an outsider here but I don't see the votes coming in in enough numbers. Skrellex has been given the opening slot perhaps in an effort by producers to put a stop to the drag act's momentum in coming through the wildcard round featuring other previous MGP acts showing there is some public support here and with a 100% Televote final I wouldn't completely dismiss the chance of an upset if viewing figures or engagement are low. Finally on the I verse Jonas Lovv has been placed to perform last in the final and has some apparent public support too, though I'm not a fan of his chances.

I might go for the upset here, just going for the 'something fresh' side of the coin.

Prediction:

1 Emma

2 Alexander Rybak

3 Skrellex

Das Deutsche Finale

Germany are back with a jury first then Televote only superfinal format meaning we're looking for the most popular act that can make a jury top 3. In this approach, I'm going to default to Sarah Engels without too much consideration, but Germany throw up more surprises than most and I’ve not really studied the lineup too much.

Prediction: Sarah Engels

Pezma Za Evroviziju

Serbia's Pezma Za Evroviziju is something I've been watching the past few years but I'm not going to prioritise that over Sanremo. From what I have seen, and even before this week, this should be straight forward for Zejna with the other acts gaining traction more likely to stumble with jurors, unless some really aren't fans of the optics of choosing this, which has happened previously here, in which case Zona seems the best placed. Not overthinking this however.

Prediction: Zejna 

Bulgaria

I don't hate Bulgaria's strategy in finding an artist then a song, and or do I hate their decision not to showcase their options in advance from a tactical point of view, after all that's how most viewers will experience it. It also makes them pretty essential viewing this evening with the most Eurovision chances out of everything touched on in this preview, by default. 

Prediction: Darya 🙃 (The second song presented then) 

As for Sanremo, I'll lay out my thoughts on that seperately a bit later so stay tuned for that…