Sanremo 2026 Final's Night Preview
Finals night is upon us and so far this Sanremo has proven as (seemingly) close as expected with narrow margins and momentum shifts. We're on our 3rd favourite of the week with Serena Brancale, Fedez e Masini and now Sal Da Vinci having their moment in the sun. I’ll do my best to piece this together…
Let’s first of all make our top 5 and the rules are pretty simple: Basically we're looking for 2-3 acts who were top 5 on Wednesday and Thursday when the field was split in half and the crucial Televote component came into to play. It’s technically possible we could see someone else come in if the margins were tiny or momentum has shifted enough but mathematically difficult. Ditonellapiaga for example who was the notable name missing those nights has some sort of deficit she has to make up tonight, on a minimum of two artists (probably 5) with only a bit of the game to go. There’s a lot left to play for but her cover night victory is no sign of a resurgence of the scale required. She’d deserve a top 5, and would make Italy Eurovision favourites for what that's worth but instead is fighting for a top 10 - Che Fastidio.
There are 3 acts I think are safely in and those are Fedez/Masini, Sal Da Vinci and Sayf. Fedez and Masini had a poor covers night but are top of most metrics from the Wednesday and Fedez has a good record of making it in. Sal Da Vinci is this year's Ariston darling, meme king and the one high on all the momentum. I previously had him in 6th-10th range but it’s been a great week for him: the Naples vote is looking strong but his anthem is universally popular and has a strong niche whilst Sayf has been consistently around the top of most things you wish to look at and second place last night (with an awful cover imo) points to strong public support for him. He’s someone I thought could grow throughout the week and that’s certainly happening. That's two spots from the Thursday taken so in my view that means we will only see a max one of Serena Brancale or Arisa in the last 5 (if either - no guarantees here). Arisa I think has the edge in this battle with covers night very damaging for Serena - both brought vocal exercises similar to their songs but Arisa mixed it up a little more and achieved by far the better result, and one that could solidify the call to get the vote out. Serena I always expected not to really last the marathon but she’s never fully got going and I don’t think she’ll make the top 5.
That's 4 acts for me and leaves the tricky other one from the Wednesday night with a shortlist of Tommaso Paradiso, Nayt, LDA and Aka 7even and Ermal Meta. Ermal certainly has some sort of hidden, potentially pro Palestinian vote as beyond that top 5 he’s been having a very poor contest. That’s a loud demographic though and there’d be more signs if this had connected so I’m discounting him. Paradiso has a more reliable older demographic supporting him and the signs are a little better. LDA and Aka 7even and Nayt have had a pretty similar tournament. On personal preference and gut feeling alone I think Nayt might be the one to get through. Regardless, whoever it is looks set for 5th place. Arisa probably gets the 4th spot which would make it a good showing for her with a pretty basic song. Fedez and Masini I think have ran out of steam a little but a good Wednesday will see them coast into 3rd giving us a showdown between Sal Da Vinci and Sayf for the win, and a pretty close one, at least that’s what I think. Sal has more upside and potential however depending on how engaged Napoli is. We won’t get something Geolier level but I can see him taking over a third to forty percent of the Televote in this theoretical top 5 which should be enough along with whatever lead or percentages he has already accumulated. Not a straightforward Sanremo but this is my top 5 prediction, which also aligns to how likely I think each is to win:
Sal Da Vinci
Sayf
Fedez e Masini
Arisa
Nayt