Eurovision 2026 Semi Finals First Look
It’s been a week since we got the semi final running orders and we’re overdue a look here at how the Tuesday and Thursday contests could play out. We have two really contrasting semi finals with the only similarity being their size and the fact there’s a pretty consensus top 3 in each.
Semi Qualifiers
Considering the standard of semi one and the fact that two thirds of entries will qualify I think it's fair to be pretty concrete on a lot of countries being certainties and in running order I'd say it's safe for all of Moldova, Sweden, Greece, Finland and Israel to have a non refundable hotel booked for slightly longer until Sunday. Croatia and Serbia are sitting just on the edge of that group too with a small chance of people just not getting either and their chances equalised due to the draws. Lithuania are a little lower but still are and I imagine will remain firm qualification predictions. That's 8 spots taken which I assume the vast majority will agree on.
Following those there's more of a debate. Portugal and Georgia are both in the stronger first half and neither have the best group of friends ever either, needing the vast majority of any points to come from neutral countries or juries. Portugal has more of a usp and a track record for doing better than we often expect and seem far likelier to me. It's not a direct one or the other obviously, but that leaves Georgia with a very hard task to qualify as probably the weakest in this half.
Montenegro have took a big hit in their chances in my view being given a draw of 8th, not just for the position itself being the earliest possible and in following Italy and Finland but also because of what this might suggest in terms of staging. They've also said themselves the performance will be very similar to the montesong version so expect a pretty empty stage. There's weak opposition and Croatia and Serbia voting but in real danger now.
Estonia and Belgium offer different versions of the same unspectacular vibe and we might have a scenario where both could now sneak through. I do much prefer the former in all with a more certain live performance, charismatic vibe and a few points more in the bag - and this was wrote before Essyla's showing the other night. Belgium seem set on staging this uninteresting song in an uninteresting way.
San Marino is as usual a wildcard and can't be entirely dismissed but feels a 4+ outsider for reasons that should be obvious.
Poland have been granted a very good draw in 14th which to me just keeps them in this, and yeah that tells you how little I rate the song. The semi also sees a poor group of voting countries by Polish standards whose diaspora has been a bit picky in recent years anyway. Vocals are there, the composition isn't, the staging will tell us if this can get enough of a jury push overall.
Overall at this stage Estonia get the nod from me in 9th and Portugal in 10th with Montenegro in the unfortunate 11th place but this is very liable to change.
Semi Two is far more open and you can probably only count the stacked together trio of Denmark, Australia and Ukraine as certain 100% qualifiers. Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, Malta and Norway feel like 80%+ certainties but vulnerable to a car crash performance and jury result in the case of the first two and being undone by an odd split or forgotten for the second three. They should all be in and then this is also a favourable semi final and draw for Albania. I don't particularly rate this as a big jury song like some or anything that will thrive outside the diaspora, but it feels like a qualifier and set to come 8th-11th in both votes meaning I'm mainly looking for 1 final qualifier.
In running order, that obviously won't be Azerbaijan and Luxembourg are in a real tricky spot here, inevitably not going to feature in a Televote top 10 and no reason for a really strong jury push. Czechia could be much more likely recipients of that but are a bit of a risk in terms of staging. Armenia can never be discounted but do feel up against it a little with better Televote hitters and less of a path to jury appeal, they are however not mainly reliant on that push like everyone else on my borderline is so a split vote could see them in. To repeat again, Switzerland and Latvia offer more jury fare but Atvara feels the more compelling and competitive of that duo.
Overall, the last spot is probably between Czechia, Armenia and Latvia for me and I'm for now going with Daniel Zizka as having the higher ceiling and reason for the jurors to put him through.
Semi Winners.
Another difficulty of this year is that the individual semis -particularly this first one- feel like very separate battles to the final and my predictions are quite different: I do think Finland are a justified favourite here, but again too short to back at odds on, and that Israel pose a real challenge, positions a bit different to what I have for the final.
Israel are reliant on a big Televote to be sure, but on merit in this semi final it's one of the better, more jury friendly entries and the last thing of much relevance in the running order. Whether any televoter or juror is rating on such neutral "merit" is debatable however but there should be less room and reason to punish this than in the final. Similarly, Finland will very likely enter this heat as the one to beat barring a big rehearsals switcheroo and probably do win the jury vote here where the competition is a bit lacking and that may be enough with the only issue being the curious placement of the non-competing Italy just before, which may backfire. Yes, I'm still on the one man Sal hype train. That would put Greece, who I do still see as the likeliest winner in the final in third here, something they may rectify in the final with a bigger casual vote, momentum through the week and the mathematics of the full field.
Maybe there's some reasency bias in my thinking from last year's switcheroos in justifying some "inconsistent" opinions but we'll see. I do think that is the semi top 3 overall regardless of order.
Sweden may have featured with a better draw and aren't 100% discounted still from making their way into the top 3 with a higher jury score than many may expect. Moldova are likely too hamstrung by the juries to feature in the running but are still competitive potentially on the televote. I don't think anyone beyond those five deserves a mention.
Semi Two is again much more open. I have Australia and Ukraine as the most likely winners but am more prepared for something random to happen here with a lot of variance in the chasing pack - Maybe Denmark, Malta or Czechia wins the jury and connects, maybe Romania fulfill their potential or Bulgaria feature in the top 2 of the Televote or Cyprus overperform expectations as can happen with this type of entry. I'm not sticking my neck out on any of that yet, and think the top 3 probably stay there in some order, but I'm less rigid than with semi one.
Since juries are a thing again in the semis and we have Eurojury returning as something of a guide this year I'll return again to update this prediction before rehearsals and include some more thorough maths. For now, my guess is the following.
Semi One
Country Semi Win % Q %
1. Finland 40 100
2. Israel 30 100
3. Greece 25 100
4. Sweden 4 100
5. Moldova 1 100
6. Croatia 0 90
7. Serbia 0 90
8. Lithuania 0 85
9. Estonia 0 50
10. Portugal 0 45
11. Montenegro 0 40
12. Belgium 0 30
13. Poland 0 30
14. Georgia 0 25
15. San Marino 0 15
Semi Two
Country Semi Win % Q%
1. Ukraine 26 100
2. Australia 26 100
3. Denmark 16 100
4. Bulgaria 8 93
5. Malta 5 90
6. Romania 9 80
7. Cyprus 5 85
8. Norway 1 80
9. Albania 0 75
10. Czechia 4 50
11. Latvia 0 40
12. Armenia 0 40
13. Switzerland 0 23
14. Luxembourg 0 20
15. Azerbaijan 0 0.5