Eurovision 2026: The Full Field

Allow me to introduce you to my problem with the year:

Finland 300 - 390

Greece 300 - 430

France 220 - 430

Sweden 260 - 380

Ukraine 250- 450

Australia 240 - 370

Italy 230 - 410

Israel 220 - 360

Denmark 200- 360

Those are the top 9 in the betting with the points range I'm currently looking at for them.

First off, let's say I'm even correct, how do you even begin then to assign favourite status? The highest floor? The highest ceiling? The highest midpoint?

We will all have different numbers but it's a shared dilemma unless you are in the "obviously Finland" group", a disclaimer that applies to most of this analysis which you won't get much from.

In past years I've tended to argue that the cream will rise to the top and we're not going to get such a flat result. This year however is just hard to forecast it going that way. I don't think anyone is getting close to the 500 pt mark and this isn't a knee jerk reaction to last year, more an acknowledgement of the unique(ish) circumstances of the year: a smaller field, big jury/televote expected discrepancies and two countries that look set to continue hoovering up at minimum 300 Televote points between them.

France and Australia are neck and neck in the jury vote odds. Fair, but would you bet your life on either getting over 100 Televote points? Israel are priced shorter to win the Televote than Finland are to win the whole thing, but one of the safest things to assume is they'll get around 60pts with the juries. Finland themselves are expected to get a 3/3 split according to the individual odds but that's enough for 2.9 outright? It's hard even to formulate my thoughts into a coherent piece of writing and at this stage we are all working more from vibes and gut instinct.

There might be some pointers to what the result could be however...

So far the Balkan return of Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova, and self exile of Ireland, The Netherlands, Spain, Iceland and to a lesser extent Slovenia (I'm not belittling this time, just in terms of voting trends and region) has been focused on the points gained by Eastern leaning songs/countries and lost by western leaning ones: The obvious example being Greece possibly scores more from the three incoming than it would have from the five outgoing.

That is very valid, but there is a second point too - those three returning countries are (at least on the Televote) strong prospects themselves and could have a serious blocker effect. Moldova is quoted as an outsider for the Televote win, Bulgaria have the most viral song on TikTok, Romania are themselves sat under 60-1 overall currently and have in past years had a strong diaspora vote. What you only start to see when going through country by country points allocations is how this trio plus Lithuania and Albania who are expected to qualify -as well as Ukraine and Israel can play havoc in the voting, particularly in western or usually diaspora dominant voting countries. 

The UK for example would be seen as one of the best hopes for Australia to score on the Televote but possibly has 5+ diasporas ahead of it. That's an extreme situation but there are cases of this all over the board.

This is partly why I have Australia with one of the lower ceilings and why I don't think they'll win. I'm happy to be on board at 26+, but I don't see the path. Denmark are another to struggle when you really ask how many even 4+ points Soren will get from the public, perhaps more so given this doesn't feel like *the* entry that juries will rally around. It does hold its own better than thought in the full lineup but ultimately is another I'm not really considering outright at present.

Israel is a fair E/W option at the odds (not amazing given the congestion) but the win part can probably be thrown away and you're reliant on perhaps 80%+ of recent support sticking around. Ukraine maybe have the highest points potential of anyone, with jury appeal and room for a casual vote to supplement the seemingly locked 150~ TV points. This is really reliant on both staging magic and some big narrative shift and spotlight back on to them which right now looks distant but E/W appeals and 38 for this to accidentally win or something to just happen is great value/insurance.

That roughly leaves me with the five of Finland, France, Greece, Sweden and Italy who provisionally feel like the most dangerous to actually win. Italy at 46 is the most out of line suggestion but without repeating the review their record is exceptional, this is the most easily accessible and joyous but distinctive song (especially to a more hidden older demographic) and I'm sceptical international jurors will see this as so dated as is made out. Sweden feels like a consensus winner just as much as Finland and by looking at the odds (over 50 for the jury win) it's being assumed way too easily that there'll be a big jury lag. I don't see that (though I didn't last year with KAJ as your disclaimer).

On Finland, my problem remains more with their odds than anything. They do need to be considered in a year such as this but backing something under 3 which may not end up in the top 3 on either side is just asking for trouble. I'm working more to the assumption Pete and Linda get 130-190 on the jury vote and 130-190 on the televote. The vibes and mood are off versus what the fandom is seeing but I don’t envisage a complete flop by any means, just something that is likely to fall short. It’s a muddled package to be sure, but still one of the better ones overall and is unlikely to go anywhere until rehearsals at least.

Greece and France are trying to win in opposite ways with Akylas hoping to score 150~ on the jury and hauling in a big televote score and Monroe needing something approaching a jury 300 with the TV contributing 120+ for example.

'Ferto' intrinsically feels weaker than all of the "Crazy/Party" brethren who have come before and there are no real statistics to fall back on to suggest any certainty this will translate across Europe. In its favour is the country shift, staging plans apparently one of the better (if you trust Kaleen talking to a Greek fansite) and Akylas being the default meme contestant others want to share a TikTok dance with (subconsciously sets the mood). 

France tick many but not all of the jury boxes and trends and could offer a standout live performance. Likewise, I don't think a mammoth jury vote is guaranteed with this lacking modernity and authenticity and the Televote could prove a problem but there is a USP there and we're yet to see a big stage live yet to really gauge the connection. In terms of winning, this has the more chance as the jury push than Australia or any other right now but have more volatility around them. We know how Delta will perform and whilst Monroe’s vocal is not doubted, the overall live packaging is.

In a year that could have a low winning points total it's important to look at the next rung down too and I have pretty positive opinions on almost everything here. Romania and Czechia feel like they have the most overall dark horse potential if either nation can deliver a flawless staging (unexpected but hey, let's see). Cyprus and Bulgaria are pretty connected and doing well on plenty of metrics and Malta is a decent jury proposal with a nice USP in the year. Moldova could once again deliver a big televote and be the actual casual's favourite. I don't really have a strong conviction that any of these will ultimately fight for something more than 8th or so but I wouldn't dissuade anyone from backing them either at the odds available. In fact, all are currently green in my book.

For fun, my current guess at a top 10 would be:

1. Greece

2. Italy 

3. France

4. Sweden

5. Finland 

6. Australia

7. Ukraine 

8. Denmark

9. Israel

10. Moldova

Take that with another huge caveat that I have Greece at under a 20% winning chance and a circa 400pts score. There's also a distinct lack of any of those outsiders I do like breaking into the under 50-1 crew but I can't in good faith start throwing Bulgaria, Czechia or Romania into conversation yet.

I'll commit to giving a more thorough prediction before rehearsals when hopefully Eurojury, pre-parties and polling will help to clarify some things. There'll also be previews on the semi finals individually once the draws are released and maybe some other pieces to fill the gap if I feel inspired.