What Am I Sure On?

I did a big preview a few weeks back now with the most fencesitting and lukewarm takes I think there’s ever been on this site. Basically, I didn't have any strong opinion on the headline question of who is going win and see a path to circa 400pts that could be enough for pretty much everyone under 100-1 on the exchange, even if I disagree with the relative probabilities. There’s then the first look at the semi final preview which also doesn't really step out of line. Sure, Estonia and Portugal were/are called in but not with any real confidence - I believe the chance of them is underestimated and there is value in backing, but those aren’t calls to take to the bank.

Over on X I literally started a point about Cyprus yesterday where I said “I wouldn't commit to where this ends up…”

With that in mind I asked myself: what are you actually “sure” on? What are some things that I do have a high level of confidence in relative to others/the market: no takes like Finland to Q or absolute 100% outcomes, some actual potential discussion points that you can all hold me accountable to for in May or I can gloat over. Here are ten somewhat stronger opinions that I am at least 80% sure on:

Italy will finish in the top 7

I could make this easier and neater by saying top 10, or bolder by saying top 5 but this is a fair middle ground and something that would be odds against I assume if it was priced up. Whilst historical results are no guarantee of future results no Italian man has finished below this since their 2011 return (10/10) For an even more dramatic and far far less relevant stat, no Italian man has finished lower than 7th at Eurovision since 1993! Sal Da Vinci sits just outside of the more fancied countries but given the year than both Mengoni and Corsi so this wouldn't even be such a surprise. Still, I’m more confident than what the odds suggest and most other predictors on a good result.

Lithuania will be the top Baltic

The market on this has flipped and is close to flipping back again between Lithuania and current favourites Latvia with Estonia considered a longshot at best by most. Lithuania have a far likelier qualifier on their hands and something, mainly thanks to diaspora, that has far more balanced support between televote and jurors. Latvia do have the higher ceiling should they be the juror push but this is no guarantee in itself, yet alone of a sufficient size. A bet that I think will win on the Thursday night and if not I still think it’s advantage Lion on the Saturday in a 17th vs 20th type tussel.

Cyprus will be in the top 15

The feature of yesterday's post, I do think there is speculative value in backing Cyprus for higher but I’m also seeing a floor of around 15th now. Taken from the review:

“Stripping out Cyprus' exceptionally good result of Eleni Foureira and dissapointment in Andromache's '22 NQ we have a very consistent 16th, 13th, 16th, 15th for their modern eurovision era girl bops which I think sums up the probabilities here”

There’s two 16ths in there sure, but Jalla has shown great sticking power since that review and has earned some benefit of the doubt whilst this also feels a good year for this - depending on how threatening you see Germany or similar Bulgaria. Not very on either point for me. Expect Cyprus to pick up very strong points from Greece (obviously), Israel and the wider East/Balkans and reach a 15th esque score at minimum on that alone.

Norway will not be in the top 15

I could have been positive and put Norway to Qualify which is a given and does offer some value still in the market but the slightly bolder option and reverse of Cyprus is to limit their ambitions. There are in my book simply too many other options and diasporas to justify odds around 2.2. Norway find themselves a distant 4th/4th in their own region on every metric and whilst this could gather support outside and Jonas’ outstanding showmanship be rewarded, I’ll take the “guarantees” and potential elsewhere with 16th-21st looking much more likely.

Georgia will not qualify

More a spicy take with fans than the odds which have this around 11th-12th but I also feel that is generous given the draw, track record and danger of something messy and see Georgia ahead of only San Marino in qualification hopes. Indeed, most other sources i’ve looked at have this generally 10th-11th so this is a pretty strong stance and lack of fence sitting from me for a change. Bookmakers are offering 1.9 here to Q, something I might consider around 4.0.

Greece will be the top Balkan

Regular readers will know I quite like both Romania and Bulgaria but both of those fit into the “need everything to go perfectly to maybe surprise” category. Greece I think is playing a much higher stakes game with an added element of certainty despite some potentially risky staging decisions that I’ll wait to see to judge. Greece remain one of the more likely winners and whilst again I don’t think it’s a certainty they reach the top 5 given the congestion and some limitations (hence why that is not the statement) I am very confident there’s a floor of around 250pts total and that even this worst case scenario will 9/10 times be more than enough to make it to the top of the regional standings.

Albania will qualify

Another that isn't controversial per say. I think most of us have this in and I’m probably less keen on it personally than many which is why i’m not aiming higher. 1.7+ has been available for this just to make it through semi 2 so allows me to at least point out some discrepancy between opinion and odds if not propose anything too spicy or optimistic. Beyond stringing together actual cast iron locks into a bet, Albania offers the best value vs likelihood ratio and are worthy of an inclusion on this list.

Denmark will not finish in the top 4

There are bigger Denmark doubters out there than me (and obviously bigger believers) and I do think there’s a chance Soren could make it in but I do lean around 80% no vs the odds’ 64% and this is the current third favourite to win the whole thing so does still count as bold enough to be on this list. Basically, whilst I can see the upside and a world in which Denmark collect 200~J 130~TV this current best case prediction may not be enough and I can see also see far more worlds where this ends up being the favourite who falls away.

The Winner Will Recieve Under 450 pts

The common theme to my first preview and reason why I’m so non-committal on writing anything off entirely is the low overall scoring potential for any contender. Things can and will coallesce but this 450 pts barrier is pretty much every country's top end in my view, and it’s hard for me to see any entry getting over 275 points from either the Jury or the Televote just on the dynamics of the year and number of points up for grabs. Is anyone reaching that on one side and the corresponding 175+ on the other? Doubtful. Is someone such as a Finland scoring 225 with both groups? I’m not really seeing that either.

The Last Place Will be Automatically Qualified

The last place markets have been one of the better here the last couple of years with Norway 2024 tipped at huge prices and San Marino 2025 on the shortlist too. Currently however Austria, The UK and Germany seem in real danger to me and it’s not too easy to see something good enough to qualify this time but fall below all of those (Estonia would be the pick if I had to suggest one). Austria will be ignored by jurors and closing the show I don’t feel will have a huge up tick in tv support, The UK is looking a bit messy and aging poorly and Germany are the sort of entry accidentally scoring close to nothing after everyone ranks them 17th. The focus is usually on the weaker automatics for this naturally and I’m pretty certain that will remain the case this time around.