Melodifestivalen 2026 Final Preview
Another National Final season comes to an end tonight with Melodifestivalen sandwiched between the chaos that is Poland and the still unclear how relevant to Eurovision late-nighter in Portugal. Yeah, I think I’m better sticking to just this to try and predict…
FELICIA enters the final as a very strong favourite, expected to win both the international jury component and televote. Whilst I didn’t predict her back in the blind preview, I did mention she could become a “steam train in the right circumstances” and that is pretty much what’s happened, albeit not primarily for any narrative reasons, ‘My System’ is pretty simply just the most complete package here and the rest of the line-up has stood still, bringing the same pros, cons and in some cases spot the difference entries.
Greczula is seen as the only realistic banana skin as something the juries could turn to if they’re more feeling the ‘rockstar’ angle than the EDM approach. I do think this is a better song than last year but the signs were pretty bad following heat one for how Sweden had took to this but the melfest audience can’t seem to get this guy out of their system. Some stats remain underwhelming but certain polls have him pretty close to FELICIA and I would guess the age group system is a bit of a leveller between them.
Semi surprise heat winner Lilla Al-Fadji, the only act not choreographed to take the semi back when the draw was revealed and Medina are priced broadly level to complete the podium. Medina have been tested at melfest before and we broadly know what sort of range and jury reception to expect whilst Lilla is more unkown, particularly on whether his votes will collapse in the older age groups and if this is too far into troll territory for the jurors. Smash Into Pieces are the other heat winner and could maybe challenge for third picking up consistent points. A-Teens and Sanna Nielsen (her despite her last place in last night’s audience poll) I have solidly in mid-table. Brandsta City Slackers (Kid votes and Older votes) and Cimberly (older voters, jury) should also be clear of last place I believe which does look to be roundly between Robin Bengtsson, Saga Ludvigsson and Meira Omar. Saga was only able to reach 27 points last year finishing bottom and it’s unclear why things would be greatly different. Meira Omar was also present and did better reaching 50 but has regressed more noticeably and if I was a juror would be bottom of the pile. She’s been given the old number 2 spot which saw a last place in 2023 but hasn’t been running statistically that much worse than other positions. Robin Bengtsson meanwhile is bottom of many polls and was the last qualifier, placing both third in his heat and behind Meira Omar in the run-off. The televote is going to struggle here and I don’t think there’s any single age category that will particularly reward him but this is Melfest-jury competent. Can he accumulate enough 2s-4s is the question.
Prediction
FELICIA 158
Greczula 127
Medina 110
Smash Into Pieces 101
Lilla Al-Fadji 96
A-Teens 77
Sanna Nielsen 75
Cimberly 52
Brandsta City Slackers 44
Saga Ludvigson 35
Robin Bengtsson 31
Meira Omar 22
I do have FELICIA winning this pretty easily with around a 30pt gap on Greczula, with Medina likeliest to complete the podium. I’ve gone with Meira Omar in last but this is a really volatile market where a random 7 points from a juror which can’t really be accounted for can make all the difference.